Best Bets, Predictions, Odds & How to Watch Venezuela vs Italy (WBC Semifinal)

• Venezuela is a -190 moneyline favorite vs Italy in the WBC semifinal
• The winner advances to the tournament final to take on Team USA
• See my Venezuela vs Italy best bet and the latest odds for this WBC Game March 16

---

The math is simple for both Venezuela and Italy, as they battle in the semifinal of the World Baseball Classic: win or go home. Waiting for them on Tuesday are the Americans, who survived past the Dominican Republic in the other semifinal on Sunday.

Despite Italy earning the title of darlings on the diamond, it’s the Venezuelans who check in as the -190 moneyline favorite to advance.

Action gets underway at 8:00 pm ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, with FS1 and Fubo TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Venezuela vs Italy Best Bet

• Over 10 runs (-110 at bet365)

The Italians enter the semifinals with a perfect 5-0 record, and while their pitching has held up, it’s the offense that has been driving this team to heights they have never seen at the WBC.

Italy is collectively delivering at a staggering .982 OPS, traling only the Dominican Republic, and ahead of powerhouse teams like Japan and the United States.

They’ve also mashed 12 home runs — that’s a lot of espresso-shot celebrations — second again to only the DR.

Italy is third in runs scored in the tournament at 40, but it’s the consistency that gives me confidence in taking the Over in this one: Italy has scored at least seven runs in every game in the tournament, topping out at a high of nine.

Venezuela hasn’t been as consistently potent on offense, but they can definitely handle the bats, as evidenced with a big 8-5 win over Japan in the quarterfinals.

Star power is on their side, with Ronald Acuna and Luis Arraez dotting the top of many of the statistical categories at the WBC.

They rank 1-2 in runs scored, plating a total of 15 times over the course of the tourney, and both have been unreal at the dish, with Acuna sporting a 1.125 OPS, and Arraez at 1.304.

Arraez is tied for the lead in doubles with four, and is third in RBI with nine.

Italy won’t have the services of both their best pitchers, Aaron Nola and Samuel Aldegheri, and will have to turn to the veteran Michael Lorenzen. While he held up against USA, he did get staked to a huge lead, so there wasn’t a ton of pressure.

Keider Montero will get the start for the Venezuelans, but he’s pitched just three scoreless innings and gave up three hits while striking out two in a win over Nicaragua. He’s yet to face a potent lineup at the WBC.

Venezuela vs Italy Picks

• Vinnie Pasquantino to hit a home run (+390 at DraftKings)

Italy did not sip an espresso in their quarterfinal win against Puerto Rico, the first time in the tournament that they failed to go long.

Vinnie Pasquantino vaulted to the a tie at the top of the home run charts with a 3-dinger day in the game prior against Mexico, and I like the lefty against Montero.

A THREE-HOMER GAME FOR VINNIE PASQUANTINO 🤌🤌🤌 pic.twitter.com/lIS854ULAA

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 12, 2026

They’ve faced each other five times in the big leagues, and Pasquantino has the advantage, with two hits, including one home run, and three RBI against Montero.

• Ronald Acuna 2+ runs (+260 at bet365)

Acuna has been ripping up the basepaths as the leadoff man for Venezuela, scoring at least two runs in four of the five games played in the tournament.

He’s hitting .333 in 12 career at-bats against Lorenzen, with a 1.167 OPS, including three hits and three walks. Japan limited him to one run in the quarterfinals, but that was a HR.

Venezuela vs Italy Odds

The Italians are getting decent +155 odds to win outright — considering they’ve yet to lose a game at the WBC this year, while the Venezuelans are getting -186 odds to win at Kalshi.

Over bettors will want to go to bet365, where they can get the total at 10 runs, a half-run less than what they’re offering at FanDuel, where you’ll want to head if you’re targeting the Under.

Odds as of March 16. New customers can claim the Kalshi referral code and get a bonus to bet on the World Baseball Classic.