Champions League Betting – Barca Only Needs Draw at Atletico

FC Barcelona (+133) at Atletico Madrid (+210), Draw (+225)

Barcelona have won every major contest they’ve contested over the last year and a half, but that could change in a hurry if the star-studded squad doesn’t fix its current form. The Catalans have a narrow 2-1 edge heading into the second leg of their Champions League quarterfinal against Atletico Madrid, but now they’ll have to travel to Vicente Calderon Stadium (today at 2:45 PM Eastern).

Barcelona’s narrow lead makes them a slight favorite to advance. But even a 1-0 loss today would see them ousted on the away goals rule. And given how Barcelona have played over the last two weeks, that result is definitely in play. The team lost the most recent edition of El Clasico to Real Madrid last week (2-1 home), and then dropped another La Liga match to Real Sociedad (2-1 away).

Their lead atop the table is now just three points over Atletico, and four over third-place Real.

Atletico Madrid also dropped one of their last La Liga matches, falling 2-1 at Sporting Gijon. But they haven’t lost at home since falling 3-2 to Celta Vigo in Copa Del Rey action back in January.

The defensively focused squad will need to leave its comfort zone today, knowing they have to score in order to advance. Atletico would prefer to sit back and defend, waiting to capitalize on the counterattack. But Barcelona, if they’re smart, won’t fall into that trap and will play a more passive style than usual.

Scoring will be a little tougher for Atletico today with striker Fernando Torres, who was ejected in the first leg, on the sidelines. But, other than that, both teams will be at full strength.

One thing the Catalans have going for them is recent head-to-head domination over Atletico. Barcelona have won the last seven games in the series (including two at Vicente Calderon Stadium). Since they don’t need the win today, I see that streak coming to an end. The draw looks like the best bet.

Pick: Draw (+225).

Photo credit: Lluís from Sabadell (Barcelona), España (LFS_14039) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)