• North Carolina is 15-0 at home but hosts Louisville without star forward Caleb Wilson
• The 162.5-point total feels inflated as UNC loses Wilson’s 19.8 points per game
• How Wilson’s absence impacts the betting landscape for Louisville at UNC

No. 18 North Carolina welcomes No. 24 Louisville to the Dean Dome tonight. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (ESPN).

The dominant storyline continues to be UNC’s evolution without freshman phenom Caleb Wilson, the Tar Heels’ leading scorer and rebounder. Wilson fractured a bone in his left hand Feb. 10 against Miami. Wilson missed UNC’s past three games (Pittsburgh, NC State, Syracuse) and will not suit up against Louisville. Without Wilson’s 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 31.2% usage rate, the Tar Heels are a fundamentally different team. UNC went 2-1 in those three games without him, including a 24-point loss to NC State, before bouncing back with a road win at Syracuse. The good news for UNC is that center Henri Veesaar is back after missing the Pitt and NC State games. Veesaar scored 19 points on 9-of-13 shooting in the Syracuse win.

Louisville (20-7, 9-5) started 2-3 in ACC play but has found its stride, going 7-2 in league play since. Did the schedule help? It didn’t hurt. The Cardinals have lost four in a row against teams ranked at the tip-off but enter tonight’s game as a slight road favorite.

We analyze Louisville at UNC and offer expert betting advice.

North Carolina vs Louisville Best Bets

Wilson’s absence is the single most important factor in handicapping this game. Without him, the betting lines take on a different complexion, and the value shifts accordingly.

The Spread Pick: Louisville -2.0 (-110 at Bet365)

With Wilson sidelined, the rationale for backing North Carolina as a home underdog weakens considerably — even though Veesaar is a beast in the middle. In the three games without Wilson, UNC’s offense has been noticeably less efficient, and the 24-point blowout loss to NC State exposed the team’s vulnerability without its star.

Louisville, meanwhile, enters Chapel Hill in excellent form, having won eight of its past ten games, including a dominant 87-70 victory over Georgia Tech and a program-tying 118-77 demolition of NC State. The Cardinals’ backcourt of Mikel Brown Jr. (18.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Ryan Conwell (18.3 PPG, 3.31 threes per game) gives them the best one-two scoring punch in this matchup. Brown Jr. has been on a tear, earning ACC Player of the Week and Naismith National Player of the Week honors after a 45-point explosion against NC State that broke the ACC freshman scoring record.

This is a critical opportunity for Louisville to gain a Quad 1 road win.

UNC’s 15-0 home record is impressive, but that was largely done behind Wilson. Louisville’s 3-5 road record is a concern, but its current form gives us confidence to lay the small number with Louisville.

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The Under Pick: Under 162.5 (-110 at Sleeper)

The total of 162.5 was set with the expectation of two fully loaded offenses. Without Caleb Wilson, UNC loses not only his 19.8 points per game but also the gravity he creates for teammates. Wilson’s high usage rate means a massive share of UNC’s possessions must be redistributed to less efficient options.

In the three games without Wilson, UNC’s scoring output has been inconsistent. While Henri Veesaar (16.5 PPG, 61.9% FG) has stepped up admirably, the Tar Heels lack the secondary creator to consistently replace Wilson’s production. Zayden High, who has earned extended minutes in Wilson’s absence, averages just 3.0 points per game on the season.

Louisville will certainly do its part to generate offense — the Cardinals average 86.8 points per game — but UNC’s defense should tighten up in a game where the Tar Heels know they cannot afford a track meet. The Under at 162.5 offers value in a game where one team is operating well below its offensive ceiling.

Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting market for this ACC showdown reveals a fascinating tug-of-war between public sentiment and larger wagers, particularly on the moneyline, while showing overwhelming consensus on the game’s projected pace.

Moneyline: Big Money Backs the Home Streak

The moneyline splits paint a clear picture of the divide between casual bettors and the heavier handle. The public is intrigued by the Louisville Cardinals as road favorites, with 55.58% of the total betting tickets coming in on the visitors. However, the money tells a different story. Despite holding a minority of the ticket count, North Carolina has attracted 56.06% of the total money wagered.

This suggests that while the volume of bettors is backing the Cardinals, the larger, more significant wagers are trusting North Carolina to extend its 15-0 home record.

Spread: A Discrepancy in Valuation

The spread market shows a notable divergence, though it falls just shy of a classic sharp signal. The betting public is leaning toward North Carolina to cover, with 59.18% of the bets backing the Tar Heels. Conversely, the money percentage favors Louisville at 64.61%. This indicates that while the average bettor expects UNC to keep it close at home, the bigger liabilities for the books are sitting on Louisville to cover the number — a signal that aligns with the Wilson-out thesis.

Total: Unanimous Expectation for Points

Unlike the side markets, there is strong consensus on the total, though Wilson’s absence could disrupt this expectation.

• Over: 70.02% of bets / 72.07% of money
• Under: 29.98% of bets / 27.93% of money

With 72.07% of the handle backing the Over, the market strongly expects a high-scoring affair. However, this heavy Over action may present contrarian value on the Under, given that UNC’s most prolific scorer and rebounder will not be on the floor.

Louisville vs UNC Team Stats & Analysis

When breaking down the statistical profiles of these two ACC contenders, the absence of Caleb Wilson dramatically reshapes the matchup. Louisville’s offensive firepower, already formidable, now faces a diminished UNC frontcourt that must compensate for the loss of its most dominant player.

The Wilson Factor: What UNC Loses

The numbers above reflect UNC’s full-strength profile, but without Wilson, the Tar Heels are a materially different team. Here is what his absence costs:

• 19.8 points per game — UNC’s leading scorer by a wide margin
• 9.4 rebounds per game — The team’s top rebounder and glass-cleaner
• 31.2% usage rate — Nearly a third of UNC’s possessions ran through Wilson
• 82.3% shooting at the rim — Elite interior finishing that cannot be replicated
• 33 blocks — A critical rim-protection presence alongside Veesaar

UNC went 2-1 without Wilson in the three games he missed, but the quality of those opponents (Pittsburgh, NC State, Syracuse) was uneven. The NC State loss — a 24-point blowout — demonstrated how quickly UNC’s offense can unravel without its star. The Syracuse win was encouraging, but Louisville represents a significant step up in competition.

Louisville’s Offensive Advantage Widens

This game now features a stark offensive mismatch. Louisville’s backcourt duo of Mikel Brown Jr. (18.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Ryan Conwell (18.3 PPG, 9.46 three-point attempts per game) gives the Cardinals two players who can individually match or exceed the production of any remaining UNC player. Brown Jr. has been sensational, tying the ACC freshman scoring record with 45 points against NC State and earning national player of the week honors. Conwell remains a volume three-point threat, having connected on 86 triples at a 35% clip this season.

Without Wilson collapsing the defense toward the paint, Louisville’s perimeter shooters may find even more space. Conwell and Isaac McKneely (11.0 PPG, 40.2% from three) could feast against a UNC defense that must now rely more heavily on Veesaar as a sole interior anchor.

UNC’s Path to Victory

North Carolina’s best chance lies with Veesaar dominating the interior. Veesaar’s 16.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 61.9% shooting provide a reliable scoring floor. Seth Trimble (13.3 PPG) will need to be aggressive pushing the pace and getting to the free-throw line, while Jarin Stevenson (7.8 PPG) and Luka Bogavac (9.9 PPG) must elevate their production. The Tar Heels’ 15-0 home record and the Dean Dome atmosphere remain legitimate factors, but they face their stiffest test yet without their best player.

The Verdict

The stats suggest Louisville holds a meaningful advantage in this matchup without Wilson on the floor. The Cardinals’ dual-threat backcourt should exploit UNC’s diminished offensive firepower, and the Tar Heels’ rebounding edge — previously anchored by Wilson and Veesaar combining for over 18 rebounds per game — is now reduced. While the Dean Dome remains a fortress, the consensus 2.5-point spread feels appropriately sized for a Louisville team that has the offensive weapons to win in Chapel Hill against a shorthanded UNC squad.

Louisville vs North Carolina Odds

• Moneyline: Louisville -144 | North Carolina +121
• Spread: Louisville -2.5 (-109) | North Carolina +2.5 (-111)
• Total: Over/Under 162.5 (-115/-105)

Odds as of February 23, 2026, from Consensus.

The betting market for this ACC clash has solidified with the road team as the favorite, a rare occurrence at the Dean E. Smith Center this season — made more understandable by the confirmed absence of Caleb Wilson. While the line opened with Louisville as a -141 favorite, money has continued to flow toward the Cardinals, pushing their price to -144. The total has ticked upward from an opening of 161.5 to 162.5, with the juice currently leaning toward the Over (-115), though Wilson’s absence could suppress UNC’s scoring output below market expectations.

Based on the current moneyline odds, the implied probability (vig-free) gives Louisville a 56.6% chance of winning the game, leaving North Carolina with a 43.4% probability of defending their home court. Without Wilson, that implied probability may actually understate Louisville’s true edge.

For bettors looking to place a wager on the outright winner, a $20 bet on the Louisville Cardinals (-144) would yield a total payout of $33.89 (including stake). Conversely, backing the home underdog North Carolina Tar Heels (+121) with the same $20 wager would return $44.20 should they pull off the upset.

Surveying the market, on Kalshi, you can buy a Louisville contract at $0.58 per, and North Carolina to win at $0.43. This means you would stand to win $0.42 for each Louisville contract purchased, should the Cardinals win the game, while you would stand to profit $0.57 on each UNC contract, should it win. This means your same $20 investment in Louisville at Kalshi would profit $13 versus the $13.89 at a sportsbook. A $20 investment in UNC at Kalshi would profit $24, compared to $24.20 at the sportsbook.