Horizon League Tournament Odds, Predictions & Schedule 2023

• The top-seeded Youngstown State is the +170 favorite to win the Horizon League tournament, which gets underway on Tuesday, February 28
• Youngstown State has never won the Horizon League tournament, or even reached the final
• See the 2023 Horizon League Tournament odds and predictions

As the Horizon League tournament prepares to get started, the Youngstown State Penguins find themselves in an unusual starting position. For the first time ever, they’re the team to beat.

Top-seeded Youngstown State finished the regular season 23-8 overall and claimed the conference’s regular-season title with a 15-5 slate. Since joining the Horizon League in 2001, the Penguins have never previously entered the event as better than a #5 seed.

They’ve only advanced beyond the quarterfinal stage of the tourney once. Nonetheless, oddsmakers have set the Penguins as +170 favorites to capture the Horizon League’s automatic bid to the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

2023 Horizon League Tournament Odds

Granted a first-round bye, Youngstown State will need only one win to equal the school’s tournament-best semifinal appearance in 2017. The Penguins are in the unique position of historically having more Super Bowl starting quarterbacks (Ron Jaworski, Super Bowl 15), then NCAA Tournament appearances (zero).

Bettors won’t find a single Horizon League team with a betting line assigned to them in the March Madness odds. Youngstown State is set as the #15 seed in the West Region in the projected March Madness bracket.

Northern Kentucky (+400), Cleveland State (+400), Milwaukee (+1000), Robert Morris (+2500) and IPFW (+7500) all have wins this season over Youngstown State.

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Odds as of February 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Horizon League Tournament Format

An 11-school conference, the Horizon League provides byes to the top-five seeds through to the quarterfinals of its men’s basketball tournament. First-round play, which gets underway at 7 pm ET on Tuesday, February 28 and can be streamed on ESPN+, pits the #6-11 seeds battling it out in one-and-done games for the other three quarterfinal spots.

The 2022-23 #HLMBB All-League Award Winners:

Player: Antoine Davis, @DetroitMBB
Freshman: Brandon Noel, @WSU_MBB
Defensive: Ahmad Rand, @MKE_MBB
Sixth Man: Trevon Faulkner, @NKUNorseMBB
Coach: Jerrod Calhoun, @YSUMensHoops pic.twitter.com/ta3xXOobqt

— Horizon League (@HorizonLeague) February 27, 2023

From that point forward, it’s a fairly straightforward format. The four quarterfinal winners meet in the semifinals, with the two finalists determining which team gains the one automatic NCAA Tournament bid given to the Horizon League.

The Horizon League tournament final will be played Tuesday, March 7 at 7 pm ET at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis. ESPN is carrying the broadcast of the game.

Horizon League Tournament Has Been a Graveyard for Favorites

Along with playing a one-and-done format, the Horizon League Tournament has proven to be an event where #1 rarely gets it done. Over the past six tournaments, the #1 seed was the winner just once. The top-seeded school has won two of the last nine tourneys, and three out of the past 12 events.

On the other hand, each of the #2 and #4 seeds show three wins in the past seven tournaments. Last year, Cleveland State, the #1 seed and the defending tournament champion, fell to #4 Wright State in the semifinals. Wright State went on to win the tourney.

Horizon League Tournament Prediction

The lack of victories by top-seeded schools speaks well to the parity among the Horizon League teams. Certainly, that’s been evident again during the 2023 season.

While Youngstown State is on top of the standings and the seedings, there are three teams hot on the heels of the 15-5 Penguins. Milwaukee, Cleveland State and Northern Kentucky all finished conference play one game behind Youngstown State at 14-6.

The #HLMBB regular season ended on Saturday and the 2023 @BarbasolShave Horizon League Men’s Basketball Championship bracket is set! @YSUMensHoops claim the regular season title and the No. 1 seed for the first time in program history.

🏀: https://t.co/eu1ijxtwnw pic.twitter.com/vroJ0vSGwI

— Horizon League (@HorizonLeague) February 26, 2023

There’s a lot to like about Youngstown State’s offense. Four players are hitting for over 13 points a game, paced by Dwayne Cohill (17.9 ppg). KenPom rates the Penguins 32nd in adjusted offense (114.9). However, they’re also 267th in adjusted defense (110.3).

Their defensive shortcomings could leave the Penguins susceptible to an upset. Considering that they could find themselves facing Northern Kentucky, 119th in adjusted defense (103.3) and 23rd in the nation at forcing turnovers (15.97 per game), in the final, this could prove to be the Achilles heel for Youngstown State.

They’ve split two games this season, with the Norse winning 77-73 at home. Take the value on Northern Kentucky to give the #2 seed a fourth Horizon League title in six years.

Pick: Northern Kentucky Norse (+400)