Illinois State vs Dayton Odds, Picks & How to Watch

• The Dayton Flyers are hefty 7.5-point home favorites Wednesday vs the Illinois State Redbirds in NIT Quarterfinal play
• Both teams allowed less than 70 points per game in the regular season
• See below for my Illinois State vs Dayton prediction, odds and how to watch

The Dayton Flyers (25-11) have been dominant at home so far at the NIT. They look to book their spot in the semifinals with a win over the Illinois State Redbirds.

The Flyers have yet to be really tested, cruising to double-digit wins though two rounds. The Redbirds, heavy underdogs in the college basketball odds, are battle-tested, having survived Wake Forest in the 2nd Round.

Read below for the latest odds, my best betting advice and how you can watch Illinois State vs Dayton tonight.

Illinois State vs Dayton Best Odds

The Flyers are solid 7.5-point home favorites across all sites, with -110 the best odds available, courtesy FanDuel. Illinois State is a +285 longshot to win outright at Kalshi while Dayton is set at less-than-stellar -333 moneyline odds at BetMGM.

The total has stayed pretty uniform across the books, settling in at 139.5 points, with -110 odds on either side at DraftKings.

Odds as of March 25. New customers can claim a FanDuel promo code to get a bonus to bet on college basketball.

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Illinois State vs Dayton Picks

• Pick: Dayton -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

I expect the home chalk to dictate the tempo and methodically grind out a multi-possession victory, making Dayton -7.5 (-110) my primary wager.

Dayton boasts a stellar 14-3 home record on the season, including a crisp 8-2 mark over the last 10. Even though Illinois State did survive on the road against Wake Forest, that was just their sixth win in 13 road games on the year.

Since the start of February, the only team that’s been able to dent Dayton are the VCU Rams, who beat them three times in a 6-week span to earn an 11-seed at the NCAA Tournament. Otherwise, the Flyers have rolled, winning all other 11 games.

They’ve been tough in tourney play, building as much as a 23-point lead in their Round 1 win over the Bradley Braves, turning it over just four times, while taking 10 Braves’ TO’s and converting those into 12 points. They also put the clamps on UNC Wilmington in an 80-61 blowout, holding the Seahawks to a rough 3-for-21 shooting mark from 3-point range (14%), while earning a +10 on the glass.

Illinois State finished fifth in scoring in the Missouri Valley at 75.3 points per game, but they were also a tough defensive matchup, ranking second in their conference allowing 68.3 points per game.

After blasting Kent State in a 79-58 win to open the NIT, it was a dicey finish against Wake Forest. A Johny Kinzinger 3-pointer with two seconds left proved to be the difference, setting up the Redbirds for a chance at the semifinals.

While Illinois State has advanced this far, the home team is playing at a higher level and have touched 80+ points in both games. I don’t think the Redbirds will be able to keep pace in this one.

How to Watch Illinois State vs Dayton

Tip-off is scheduled for 7pm ET on Wednesday, March 25, at UD Arena, with national broadcast coverage provided by ESPN2. Dayton is hosting its first home NIT game since 2010.