#3 Louisville vs #2 Michigan Expert Picks & Odds (NCAAW Sweet 16)

• It’s a Sweet 16 battle between the Michigan Wolverines and Louisville Cardinals at the Women’s NCAA Tournament
• Of Michigan’s six losses on the year, five have come against Top-15 ranked teams
• See below for my Louisville vs Michigan prediction, and the latest betting odds

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A trip to the Elite Eight is on the line when the second-seeded Michigan Wolverines (27-6) take on the 3rd-seeded Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon.

Michigan has thoroughly dismantled both teams in its path to the Sweet 16, a big reason they are the betting favorite in the women’s college basketball odds.

However, they’ve been bitten all season with the level up in competition, which plays a factor in my Louisville vs Michigan best bet.

Action gets underway Saturday from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, tipping off at 12:30pm ET. ABC is carrying the broadcast coverage.

Louisville vs Michigan Prediction

• Over 142.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

The Wolverines have not been challenged at the NCAA Tournament, crushing NC State last game to the tune of 92-63. That, after thrashing Holy Cross 83-48 in their opener.

That’s a jump from their numbers from the regular season, where they owned a healthy win margin of 21.4 points per game. Offensively they’re ranked ninth in the nation in scoring at 83.9 points per game.

They’re paced by sophomore guard Olivia Olson, who leads the team in scoring at 19.2 points per game, and topped all scorers with 27 against NC State.

Guard Mila Holloway has done plenty of heavy lifting in the tourney too, leading UM across the board with 20 points, eight boards and seven assists in the opener against Holy Cross, then adding 13 points, nine rebounds and six dimes against the Wolfpack.

Louisville will be their first legitimate test in the tourney, and the Cardinals are battled tested, considering they escaped last game with a 69-68 win over the sixth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide.

Michigan vs Ranked Teams Since Jan 1

Plenty needed to go right to move into the Sweet 16 bracket, including Elif Istanbulluoglu — who led the team 18 points — picking up a key steal with 1:42 remaining. From there, Reyna Scott’s drilled a one-handed jumper as the shot clock expired, and Imari Berry added two free throws with 8.2 seconds left, as the Cardinals did just enough to land the plane.

Louisville is 17th in the NCAA in scoring at 79.4 points per game, so they’ve got enough juice to keep pace with the Wolverines, and they have a defense that allows just 60.7 points.

Perhaps their biggest threat to the Wolverines, though, is that they’re a ranked team (13th), and the few problems Michigan had this season were against teams in the Top 15 in the nation.

In fact, Michigan has just six losses on the year and five of those are to ranked teams. Their only loss to a non-ranked team was Washington on January 1. Since then, they’ve gone 16-4, all to ranked teams.

To be fair, the Big Ten is a gauntlet, and the Wolverines held their own against ranked opponents, going 5-4.

But that leads me away from the point spread and to the total. These are two high-octane offenses that I believe will go toe-to-toe Saturday, with plenty of points to go around.

Louisville vs Michigan Odds & Betting Lines

Michigan enters Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite, paying out at -114 at FanDuel, while you can get Louisville with those extra points at -110 odds at BetMGM. An outright win for the underdogs pays +178 at Kalshi, and you can get -210 odds for a UM win on the moneyline.

Over bettors should be taking their business to DraftKings, where the total is set at 142.5 points, while BetMGM is the more appealing for Under bettors, who gain a full point at 143.5.

Odds as of March 27. New customers can claim a FanDuel promo code to get a bonus to bet on women’s college basketball.