Mississippi State vs Missouri Predictions & Picks

• Missouri is a 3.5-point favorite over Mississippi State in Thursday’s SEC Tournament Second Round matchup
• The Bulldogs are coming off a 91-62 rout of LSU in the First Round
• See my Mississippi State vs Missouri picks and predictions below, plus betting odds

The 10-seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-11, 8-10 SEC) clash with the 7-seed Missouri Tigers (21-10, 10-8 SEC) in a SEC Tournament Second Round matchup on Thursday.

The Tigers are favored by 3.5 points in the latest college basketball odds after earning a first-round bye. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, with SEC Network providing the broadcast.

Mississippi State vs Missouri Prediction

I like the Bulldogs to cover the 3.5-point spread in this one. Mississippi State enters on a heater offensively, scoring 91 points in a blowout win over LSU on Wednesday. Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard erupted for 26 points on 6-of-12 shooting from deep to lead the attack.

The Bulldogs have now scored 81+ points in four straight games and five of their last six overall. They rank 21st nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and play at the second-fastest pace in the SEC. Mississippi State is particularly dangerous inside the arc, getting 51% of their points on two-pointers at a 54.8% success rate.

That could spell trouble for a Missouri defense that ranks 12th in the SEC at defending inside the perimeter. The Tigers have struggled mightily on that end lately, surrendering an average of 90.8 points over their last six games. They’ve allowed 84+ points in eight of their last 12 contests overall.

While Missouri’s offense is electric, ranking 5th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency, the Bulldogs are no slouch on that end either at 21st. Mississippi State has a major advantage on the offensive glass as well, ranking 4th in the SEC in offensive rebounding rate (32.2%) since mid-February. Second-chance points could prove pivotal.

Mississippi State vs Missouri KenPom Rankings

When these teams met in Starkville on Feb 1, Missouri rolled to an 88-61 victory. But the Tigers were playing much better defense at that point, and Mississippi State still had Hubbard erupt for 20-plus points like he did on Wednesday. I expect a much more competitive game this time around.

Both teams are trending toward high-scoring affairs, with the over hitting in Mississippi State’s last six games and Missouri’s last seven. I think this one also goes over the total of 156.5, but I feel much more confident in backing the Bulldogs to cover the short spread. Grab the 3.5 points.

Mississippi State vs Missouri Pick

• Mississippi State +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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The Bulldogs are underdogs at online sportsbooks like BetMGM, but I believe they are live in this matchup. They’ve already got a game under their belt in Nashville and their starters got plenty of rest in the blowout over LSU.

Mississippi State matches up well with Missouri on both ends. The Bulldogs’ biggest strength (2-point offense) aligns with the Tigers’ most glaring weakness (2-point defense). And while Mizzou has the firepower to overwhelm most teams, MSU’s defense (48th in adjusted efficiency) is better equipped to slow them down than most.

I’ll back the Bulldogs catching 3.5 points, as I believe they have a great shot to win this one outright. Keep tabs on the Missouri sports betting apps as legalized sports gambling is coming to The Show-Me State.

Mississippi State vs Missouri Odds

The Bulldogs are +140 moneyline underdogs at March Madness betting apps, while the Tigers are -170 favorites. The total is set at 156.5 points, juiced to -110 on both sides.

Odds as of March 13, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on this game, and don’t forget to check out the latest on BetMGM Missouri.