NCAA Tournament First Round Picks Against the Spread

• The first round of March Madness starts on Friday, March 19th, at 12:15 pm ET with Virginia Tech vs Florida
• A couple of high seeds are limping into the tournament
• Which teams look like the best bets to cover the spread?

The 2021 NCAA men’s basketball tournament kicks into high gear with first-round play happening this Friday and Saturday, March 19th and 20th.

The action gets underway at 12:15 pm ET on Friday when Florida and Virginia Tech take the court at Hinkle Fieldhouse on the campus of Butler University in a game broadcast by CBS. The last tip of the first round is currently set for 9:57 pm ET on Saturday,  when VCU and Oregon will put a bow on the first round in a game that will be televised on TNT.

These are two of the most frenzied days of the sports calendar, and there’s going to be a ton to keep track over a 48-hour span. While there are a number of against-the-spread plays in the first round that look attractive, three stand out above all others.

NCAA Tournament ATS Picks

Odds as of March 16 at FanDuel.

Pick #1: Winthrop Upsets Villanova

Entering this tournament, there is no top-five seed more vulnerable than Villanova. A season-ending injury to senior point guard Collin Gillespie and an ankle injury to sophomore sharpshooter Justin Moore have left this team as the walking wounded entering March Madness. Even before the injuries, the Wildcats weren’t looking like the legitimate title threat they appeared to be in January. Over its last seven games, Villanova is shooting just 27.6% from three.

Meanwhile, Winthrop comes into the Big Dance red-hot, and with a fully healthy point guard who is one of the best players in the tournament.

In the Big South Conference Tournament Chandler Vaudrin averaged 11.3ppg on 52% shooting and was 1/2 on triples. He tallied 10rpg with 25 assists and nine turnovers and was named tournament MVP as Winthrop won by an average of 25.7 points a game.

— Dave Friedman (@friedman_dave) March 9, 2021

Outside of not having a natural answer for Vaudrin, the pace of this game also has a chance to get away from Villanova. Winthrop plays at the 11th-fastest pace in all of college basketball. That presents a bit of a challenge for a Wildcat squad that not only likes to play much slower — 320th out of 351 D-I teams in tempo — but which doesn’t have the same level of backcourt depth that it did a month ago.

If none of that is enough, here’s your annual reminder that in 30 of the last 35 years, at least one 12-seed has advanced out of the first round of the tournament. Over the last 12 years, 12-seeds actually own a highly respectable overall record of 22-26 against five seeds, and went 3-1 in the first round in the most recent tournament.

Pick #2: North Carolina Over Wisconsin

One of the most absurd statistics in all of college basketball is Roy Williams’ perfect 29-0 record as a head coach in NCAA tournament first-round games. Sure, most of those have come as a very high seed facing a seed in the teens, but still, entering your 30th helping of March Madness without a single opening-round loss is an outrageous achievement.

At risk on Friday vs. Wisconsin?

Roy Williams is 29-0 all-time the first round of the NCAA Tournament, including a 15-0 record at UNC.

— Ross Martin (@RossMartinNC) March 14, 2021

There are reasons to like UNC in this game other than history. For starters, they’ve simply been playing much better than their opponent in recent weeks. While Wisconsin limped to the finish line by losing six of its last eight, the Tar Heels were winning three of their last four, including a pair of wins in the ACC tournament. While those three wins came by an average of 22.7 ppg, the loss came by three to a Florida State team that is a 4-seed in this tournament.

North Carolina, as always, makes a living off second-chance opportunities. A massive frontcourt that includes veterans Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot as well as potential lottery pick freshman Day’Ron Sharpe, who sees every shot attempt as a potential assist. They’ll be a daunting assignment for a Wisconsin team that ranks 256th in the country in total rebounds and 288th in offensive rebound percentage.

Pick #3: Ohio Over Virginia

Knowledge about the frequency of the 12/5 upset has been mainstream for a while now. Not enough respect gets tossed in the direction of the 13/4 upset.

At least one 13 seed has won a game in the tournament in nine of the last 12 years. Most recently, it was UC Irvine getting the better of Kansas State back in 2019. There’s plenty of reason to believe this trend is going to continue in 2021.

Share Jason Preston’s story:

-Averaged 2 PPG in high school
-Attended prep school
-Posted highlight tape on Twitter
-Ohio & Longwood offered
-Dropped 31 on No. 8 Illinois

Never quit on your dreams. 🙌@Treballjay11 | @OhioMBasketball pic.twitter.com/d2bICdhnDk

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) November 28, 2020

For starters, there are the basic questions about Virginia’s status. The Cavaliers had to pull out of the ACC Tournament before their semifinal game, and are the only one of the 68 teams in the tournament that wasn’t able to arrive in Indianapolis by Tuesday night. There’s no clarity on who may or may not be available for Tony Bennett in this game, but we know for a fact that this team will have had a more inconsistent and chaotic lead-in to its first-round game than any other in the tournament.

Even if Virginia winds up being at or near full strength, this is an attractive matchup for Ohio. Everyone knows you need good shooting to beat UVA’s vaunted pack line defense. Ohio is the No. 56 three-point shooting team in the country, and owns the sixth-best effective field \-goal percentage of any team in the tournament. Having the best player on the floor in Jason Preston doesn’t hurt either.