Odds to Get a #1 Seed in NCAA Tournament – Will UConn or Florida Get Final One-Seed?

• Odds have been released to get a #1 seed at March Madness
• Duke, Arizona and Michigan are virtual locks, but the final #1 seed is up for grabs
• See the odds to get a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, plus my favorite picks

We’re still 10 days away from selection Sunday, but the March Madness seeds are already starting to fall into place. There are three programs that seem destined to be a 1-seed regardless of what happens in their respective conference tournament, but the final #1 seed is still very much up for grabs.

You can bet on which teams will secure a number-1 seed at the NCAA Tournament, and while there is no value to be found on the three favorites, I have a plus-money wager that I think you should make.

Keep reading to find out that selection, plus see the latest odds to get a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament below.

Odds to Be a #1 Seed in March Madness (2026)

Prediction Markets

#1 Seed Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Duke

98%

Arizona

96%

Michigan

96%

UConn

69%

Florida

40%

Michigan St.

5%

Houston

3%

Kansas

3%

Gonzaga

3%

Nebraska

2%

Predict

Per Prediction Market Kalshi, #1 Duke, #2 Arizona and #3 Michigan are trading at 98 and 96 cents respectively. In sports betting terms, that equals -4900 and -2400 odds to secure a top seed, which is simply unbettable. #4 UConn has the next highest chance at 69 cents (-223 odds) to earn a top seed, with #5 Florida next on the board trading at 40 cents, which equals +150 odds.

Odds as of Mar. 5 at Kalshi. New customers can claim the Kalshi referral code and get a bonus to bet on NCAA Hoops.

The Battle Between UConn and Florida for the Final #1 Seed

As of Thursday night, the Huskies actually sit sixth in the March Madness odds, behind both the Gators and #7 Houston. We can discount the Cougars from this discussion, as the committee won’t be able to ignore their February slump, that cost them a chance to win the Big 12’s regular season crown.

UConn went through a mini skid of their own in February, when they lost twice in four games, but have rebounded with three straight wins, including a total beat down of then #15 St John’s by 32 points.

If you’re making the case for the Huskies, you’re banking on them breezing through the Big East Tournament en route to another conference title. This is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and their offense is ticking up as well, ranking 11th in efficiency over the last six weeks. It’s also hard to ignore their glowing 8-2 record in Quad 1 games, which is a higher winning percentage in those contests than Florida and Houston.

However, there are things working against UConn that the selection committee won’t be able to overlook. For starters, the Huskies rank behind both the Gators and Cougars in all the big advanced analytics models like KenPom, Bart Torvik and ESPN’s BPI. UConn also grades out lower than both those programs in offensive and defensive rating, and rank behind Florida in strength of schedule metrics.

UConn vs Florida Advanced Stats

Speaking of the Gators, they’re the team I believe you should invest in to get a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. You won’t find any Wooden Award odds favorites on this roster, but over the last two months, no team is playing better than the Gators. Florida is a ridiculous 15-1 in their past 16 games. They’ve beaten six ranked teams during that stretch, and nine of their last 10 victories have come by 13+ points.

They piled up 219 points in their last two games alone, and have scored 90+ points in six straight contests versus ranked opponents. That’s third longest streak of that kind in AP Poll history, and the longest since the 1989-90 season.

Haters will point to the fact that the Gators suffered early season losses to the Huskies, Blue Devils and Arizona, but this was a different team at the start of the campaign. They got off to a 5-4 start, but have since gone 22-2.

Florida owns a better strength of schedule per Net Rating than any other program in the #1 seed conversation, and ranks 11 spots higher than UConn in offensive rating, and eight spots higher in defensive rating.

If they can run through the SEC field in the conference tournament like they did last season, their resume and recent championship pedigree will be too good to keep off the #1 seed list. That makes them an easy bet to be a #1 seed at March Madness, especially at plus-money.