Sun Belt Tournament Picks Today: Best Bets for Georgia State vs Louisiana, Old Dominion vs LA-Monroe
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
The Sun Belt Conference Tournament tips off Tuesday, March 3, from the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL. The opening round features two matchups streaming on ESPN+: the No. 13 Georgia State Panthers (10-21, 7-11 SB, 12-13 ATS) take on the No. 12 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-21, 7-11 SB, 10-16 ATS) at 6:00 pm ET, with the winner advancing to face No. 9 James Madison tomorrow; in the second tip, the No 11 Old Dominion Monarchs (11-20, 7-11 SB, 16-14 ATS) meet the No. 14 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-27, 1-17 SB, 17-12 ATS) at 8:30 pm ET, with the winner advancing to face No. 10 Georgia Southern.
Below, I have set out the odds and my picks for both games, starting with the early tip-off between Ga. State and Louisiana.
Jump to: Georgia State vs Louisiana Picks || LA-Monroe vs ODU Picks
Georgia State vs Louisiana Odds & Betting Lines
Note that the Louisville Cardinals logo is incorrectly displayed in the graphic above but the odds in the graphic are for Georgia State vs Louisiana on March 3.
The Georgia State vs Louisiana point spread is a pick’em at many sportsbooks, with both teams priced at -110 on the moneyline. Georgia State bettors can find -105 moneyline odds at Caesars.
Prediction site Kalshi actually has the best price on a Louisiana victory. Kalshi users can get the Ragin’ Cajuns at 50¢, which is equivalent to a +100 moneyline in traditional sports-betting terms. The Panthers are 52¢, which is equal to a -108 moneyline, so the -105 price at BetMGM remains the best option for Georgia State-to-win bettors.
Readers who haven’t already signed up at Kalshi can click the graphic above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you’re already using Kalshi, you can claim the Novig promo code instead.)
Louisiana vs Georgia State Picks & Predictions: Louisiana Moneyline (50¢ at Kalshi)
This matchup is the definition of a “sweat” for bettors. The books have priced this nearly dead even, with Louisiana favored by a single point. While the Panthers are capable of the upset, the metrics suggest Louisiana is slightly more likely to survive and advance, so getting the Cajuns at even-money is a +EV bet.
While Georgia State rates slightly higher at KenPom (301st vs 311th), Louisiana rates significantly higher at Torvik (285th vs 309th) and won the only regular-season meeting between the teams (82-72 home). Louisiana was slightly less impotent down the stretch of the regular season, too. Georgia State is a brutal 1-9 SU in its last ten. Louisiana is 1-5 in its last six but 5-5 in its last ten.
Louisiana Monroe vs Old Dominion Odds & Lines
With the Sun Belt tournament taking center stage, we are dissecting two distinct betting narratives: a virtual coin-flip and a lopsided affair. Based on the implied probabilities and market movements, here are our best bets for today’s slate.
Kalshi actually has a better moneyline price for both teams at the moment. ODU to win is trading at 85¢ (equal to a -567 moneyline), while ULM to win is trading at just 16¢ (equal to a +525 moneyline).
The game total shows a rare 1.5-point range across sportsbooks. Under bettors should take 159.0 (-110) at bet365. Over bettors should head to DraftKings where they can get over 157.5 at -108.
Old Dominion vs Louisiana-Monroe Expert Pick: ULM +10.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
ULM is a bad team. They won just a single game in Sun Belt play, and the Sun Belt rates just 20th out of 31 conferences, nationwide. They are still exceeding expectations most nights, however. They went a profitable 17-12 against the spread in the regular season, including covering their previous meeting against the Monarchs. ODU picked-up the victory (85-79) but didn’t come close to covering as 13.5-point home chalk.
Now the Monarchs are being asked to cover 10.5 on a neutral court. It’s too big an ask in a do-or-die game that will inevitably see defensive intensity ramped up. Only four of Old Dominion’s 11 victories this season came by double-digits, and all four of those were at Chartway Arena in Norfolk.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
