Villanova vs Michigan Picks, Predictions & Props to Target (Dec 9th)

• Undefeated Michigan is a 17-point home favorite against 7-1 Villanova
• The Wildcats possess specific matchup advantages that make covering the large spread viable
• See my Villanova vs Michigan picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and betting splits for Dec. 9th

A premier non-conference clash highlights Tuesday’s college basketball slate as the Villanova Wildcats (8-1, 1-0 away, 6-2 ATS, 4-4 O/U) venture into hostile territory to battle the undefeated Michigan Wolverines (8-0, 3-0 home, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U). Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 pm ET at the Crisler Center with Fox Sports 1 providing national television coverage of this marquee showdown.

Villanova has rattled off seven straight wins since a narrow season-opening loss to BYU (71-66 neutral). But this will be just the second game of the season for the Wildcats against a top-100 opponent. Michigan, on the other hand, is a perfect 8-0 with four wins against top-50 teams, which includes a 30-point win over Auburn (rated 29th at KenPom) and a 40-point win over Gonzaga (third at KenPom).

The Wolverines’ absolute beatdowns of elite competition have led the Villanova vs Michigan odds to open with the home team as massive favorites, laying as many as 17.5 points. Can the Wildcats leverage their advantages to at least cover the spread? Below, I will break down the matchup in order to find the Villanova/Michigan best bets. At the tail end, find the latest odds and betting splits.

Villanova vs Michigan Expert Picks & Best Bets

ATS Pick: Villanova +17.5 (-106) at FanDuel

This matchup presents the classic David versus Goliath scenario that sharp bettors dream about finding. Michigan’s pristine record and #1 RPI ranking command respect, but the 17-point spread creates a mathematical mountain that’s difficult to climb against quality opposition. Villanova arrives with the perfect statistical profile to exploit specific weaknesses and keep this game competitive deep into the second half.

The Wildcats’ path to covering runs directly through their elite perimeter shooting and relentless rebounding attack. Guard Bryce Lindsay has emerged as one of the nation’s premier shooters, connecting at a 49.1% clip from three-point range while averaging 18.1 points per game. That three-point percentage ranks 14th nationally and gives Villanova the explosive capability to erase deficits quickly against any opponent.

Meanwhile, Duke Brennan has established himself as the most dominant rebounder in college basketball, leading Division I at 12.9 rebounds per game while pulling down 6.3 offensive RPG. These second-chance opportunities become crucial against a Michigan team that can be beaten on the glass despite their size advantage. Michigan sits just 61st in O-REB% (36.0%) and 53rd in D-REB% (73.4%) nationally. Not terrible by any means, but Villanova is second in O-REB% (44.0%).

Michigan counters with a balanced offensive attack led by Yaxel Lendeborg’s 15.8 points per game and Morez Johnson Jr.’s remarkable 68.7% field-goal percentage. However, their defense, while anchored by shot-blocker Aday Mara (2.9 blocks per game), has shown vulnerability to teams that can stretch the floor and crash the offensive glass – exactly Villanova’s calling card.

Michigan should win this game straight up, but covering an 17-point spread against a tournament-caliber opponent requires near-perfection for 40 minutes. Villanova’s five double-digit scorers provide the depth necessary to weather Michigan’s runs, while Brennan’s rebounding ensures extra possessions when shots aren’t falling.

Over/Under Pick: Over 152.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Both teams feature the offensive firepower to push this total north of 152 points. Michigan has four players averaging double-figures and 52.8% field-goal percentage as a team, which has led to a massive 94.6 PPG average through eight games.

Villanova matches that firepower with balanced scoring and Lindsay’s three-point potential. Both teams are 4-4 O/U this season, but both have also hit the over in two of their last three.

Player-Prop Pick: Duke Brennan Over 10.5 Rebounds (+105) at BetMGM

Brennan’s rebounding prop deserves serious consideration given his statistical dominance and this matchup’s dynamics. As the nation’s leading rebounder, he’s exceeded 10.5 rebounds in five of seven games this season. Michigan’s elite defense (rated first at KenPom in Defensive Efficiency) should mean plenty of missed shots and ample rebounding opportunities at the offensive end for the country’s top glass-cleaner.

Villanova vs Michigan Current Betting Odds

Sportsbooks have installed Michigan as prohibitively short home favorites. On the moneyline, Michigan’s best price is -2000 at bet365, while the Wildcats are as long as +1280 at FanDuel. The spread ranges from MICH -17.0 to -17.5 with bet635 again offering the best odds on UM and FanDuel the best odds on Nova.

The total ranges from 152.5 to 154.0. Over bettors should take 152.5 (-110) at FanDuel. Under bettors can get 154.0 (-110) at Fanatics.

Odds and commentary as of 11:05 am ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the college basketball odds move over the course of the day.

VILL vs MICH Public Betting Splits

Michigan’s 53% of total ATS bets appears relatively balanced until examining the money distribution. Those Wolverine tickets represent a staggering 85% of the total handle, indicating that larger, more confident wagers are backing the home favorite to cover the substantial number. Conversely, Villanova attracts 47% of the bet count but only 15% of the money.

The Over/Under market displays unusual unity between casual and sharp bettors. Over 151 is capturing 88% of all bets and an even more substantial 89% of the handle, indicating both recreational players and professional handicappers expect a shootout.

Michigan commands 92% of all moneyline tickets, reflecting the public’s belief in the home favorite’s superiority. However, Villanova’s 8% of bets represents 32% of the moneyline handle, suggesting some bettors are taking flyers on the lucrative underdog odds for potential massive payouts.

Statistical Breakdown: Wildcats vs Wolverines by the Numbers

The Wolverines’ offensive efficiency jumps off the page, with their 52.8% field goal percentage ranking 22nd nationally compared to Villanova’s 89th-ranked 48.4% mark. Michigan’s 94.6 points per game (8th nationally) reflects their balanced attack led by Lendeborg and Johnson Jr’s interior dominance. Johnson Jr’s 68.7% field-goal percentage ranks 7th nationally, showcasing the type of efficient scoring that makes Michigan so dangerous.

Villanova counters with superior three-point shooting depth, connecting on 38.0% of attempts compared to Michigan’s 37.3% mark. While the difference appears minimal, Lindsay’s elite 49.1% three-point shooting (14th nationally) provides the Wildcats with game-breaking potential from beyond the arc.

The most significant statistical discrepancy favoring Villanova appears on the offensive glass. Despite Michigan’s overall rebounding advantage (43.0 vs 33.9 per game), the Wildcats rank 18th nationally in offensive rebounds at 12.3 per game compared to Michigan’s 98th-ranked 10.4 mark. Brennan’s nation-leading 12.86 total rebounds and 6.29 offensive boards create the foundation for this edge, providing crucial second-chance opportunities that can neutralize Michigan’s size advantage.

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