Heisman Odds After Week 3: D’Eriq King Even With Trevor Lawrence; Idle Fields the Sole Favorite

• Miami QB D’Eriq King  has the second-best 2020 Heisman Trophy odds, tied with Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence at +600
• OK State RB Chuba Hubbard has fallen to a +5000 longshot
• Ohio State’s Justin Fields in the favorite at +500, despite the Buckeyes remaining inactive until late October

There’s been significant movement in the Heisman odds after Week 3 of this unusual college football season. Miami transfer QB D’Eriq King is now at +600, tied with preseason co-favorite Trevor Lawrence, after an impressive performance against Louisville.

Popular longshot pick Chuba Hubbard has plummeted down the board after Oklahoma State underwhelmed in a narrow victory over Tulsa.

Evidently, absence makes the oddsmaker’s heart grow fonder; Justin Field’s is now the sole favorite at +500 even though his Ohio State Buckeyes won’t play their first game until October 24th.

Here is how the top-15 Heisman favorites looks after Week 3 .

Heisman Trophy Odds

Odds as of Sep. 20, 2020.  

D’Eriq King Surges Up Rankings

Miami Hurricanes quarterback D’Eriq King, a transfer from Houston, has been one of the biggest movers in the Heisman odds after throwing for 325 yards and three touchdown passes in a 47-34 victory over Louisville on Saturday. He would’ve padded those numbers even more if a 74-yard completion to Will Mallory hadn’t been wiped out by a false-start penalty.

These are the passing skills that the Hurricanes expected from King when he transferred from Houston. He piled up 2,982 passing yards and 36 touchdowns with just six interceptions in his last full season back in 2018. He redshirted after four games in 2019 to preserve his final year of eligibility.

King has gone from +1800 to +600 in the Heisman odds after the big performance against the Cardinals, which is a massive leap.

King is a talented dual-threat QB, but the better value for him may come from betting on him getting an invite to New York instead of winning straight up. He has to make a trip to Death Valley in October, where he’s likely to be eaten up by Clemson’s elite defense. The Tigers’ ACC dominance (five straight conference championships) will be a big hindrance to King’s Heisman chances.

Trevor Lawrence Dismantles Citadel 

Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence remains near the top of the Heisman odds after a strong showing against the Citadel in Week 3. Lawrence only threw nine passes in a 49-0 blowout victory on Saturday, but they were very effective, with three of them connecting for touchdowns. He added a rushing touchdown and finished the game with 170 yards of offense.

Lawrence has looked great through two games, but it’s important to remember Clemson is going up against inferior opponents. Lawrence barely even played after the Tigers took a 28-0 lead into the second quarter, which isn’t something you want in a potential Heisman candidate. His numbers aren’t going to be as strong by the end of the season simply because coach Dabo Swinney isn’t going to play him in the second halves of blowout wins.

Lawrence is also having his Heisman value impacted by the play of teammate Travis Etienne. The star RB has gone off for 170 rushing yards in two contests thus far after exploding for over 1,600 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons. Betting on a running back when the Heisman has primarily become a QB award isn’t a very smart play to begin with, and it’s going to be even tougher when most of the eyes are on the stud at quarterback. But a huge season from Etienne will still erode Lawrence’s Heisman credentials.

Chuba Hubbard Falls to +5000

One of the most popular longshot bets for the Heisman entering the season was Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard. His Heisman case has taken a major hit after an underwhelming performance in Week 3 against Tulsa. Hubbard was limited to just 35 yards by halftime and finished with 93 yards on the night, snapping his 11-game streak of 100-yard contests.

https://twitter.com/jasonkersey/status/1307368999186059264?s=20

Hubbard put up a whopping 2,094 rushing yards in 2019 yet was snubbed when it came to award season. He’s going to have an even harder time garnering attention from voters in 2020 considering how the Cowboys looked in Week 3. With QB Spencer Sanders suffering an ankle injury in the game, OK State could become a very one-dimensional offense that gets bottled up by good defenses (not that the Big 12 has many of those).

If you’re looking for a good longshot bet at running back, Najee Harris (+3300) at Alabama is the play. The senior looked dominant in the second half of the 2019 season and is going to get a chance to make a strong case playing on a talented Alabama squad that is projected to make the CFP after missing out last season. There is also a reasonable chance that Bama plays more than one quarterback this season; Mac Jones has the experience, while Bryce Young has the five-star talent. (Note that they are both +2500 in the Heisman odds.) A time-share of sorts at QB could make Harris look like the most-important player on, potentially, the best team in the nation.

Heisman Analysis After Week 3

Justin Fields was my preseason pick for the Heisman, and nothing from three weeks of the season has changed that. The Big Ten has moved to an eight-game conference-only schedule, and Fields will begin making his case on Oct. 24 against Nebraska. This Ohio State team will be a powerhouse, and Fields is primed for a huge season after throwing for 3,273 yards and 41 TDS with just three interceptions in year one.

Ryan Day on Justin Fields: “He never even thought about leaving. He looked me in he eye and said ‘coach, the NFL will come one day. I want to win a national championship with this team and I want to win a Heisman trophy. And that was it. We didn’t have another conversation."

— Eleven Warriors (@11W) September 19, 2020

This could very well be a year where voters look more at “Heisman moments” instead of raw statistics. Fields is going to have those opportunities in marquee matchups against Penn State and Michigan. Those will be harder to come by for Lawrence with Clemson’s ACC schedule.

The Heisman has been won by a QB in 17 of the past 20 seasons. The best longshot play after Week 3 is Spencer Rattler (+1100) at Oklahoma. The freshman threw for 290 yards and four TDs in his debut against Missouri State back in Week 1. Sooners coach Lincoln Riley has produced a Heisman finalist in each of his first three seasons at the helm (all QBs).