A.I. College Football Picks for Week 11 – ATS & O/U Predictions from Sportradar Model

• SportRadar’s college football AI went 6-4 ATS in Week 10 but managed just 3-7 on totals, continuing its bizarre pattern of mediocre spreads and terrible total predictions
• The model nailed SMU covering against Miami and correctly backed Nebraska to stay close with USC, but got crushed on totals
• Below, the AI’s Week 11 picks feature a massive slate of unders and some head-scratching favorites, including backing Ohio State to cover 29.5 points at Purdue

SportRadar’s AI model finally showed signs of life on spreads in Week 10, going 6-4 ATS for its first winning week since who knows when. But the totals side was a disaster at 3-7, dropping the model’s once-respectable over/under record closer to break-even territory.

The college football AI picks correctly identified value in SMU getting 12.5 points against Miami (the Mustangs lost by just 7) and smartly backed Nebraska to cover against USC at home. But missing on seven of ten totals, including being wrong on the Tennessee-Oklahoma game that sailed over, shows the model still can’t figure out scoring patterns.

Week 11 brings massive playoff implications with BYU at Texas Tech headlining the slate. The AI has analyzed the college football odds and come out with an aggressive stance: unders everywhere and some questionable spread picks that smell like square bait.

AI College Football Picks for Week 11

AI picks record to date:

• ATS picks: 44-45-1
• O/U picks: 48-42

College football AI predictions generated on November 5, 2025. Check out the top college football betting apps ahead of Week 11.

The Under Machine Strikes Again

Eight of nine picks lean under, with only BYU-Texas Tech getting the over treatment. The model thinks college football turns into a defensive slugfest in mid-November. Oregon-Iowa under 41.5 makes sense for a Kinnick Stadium rock fight, but some of these other unders look aggressive.

BYU at Texas Tech over 51.5 stands out as the lone contrarian play. The model sees points despite 27 mph winds expected in Lubbock on Saturday. Bear Bachmeier has thrown 20 touchdowns for the undefeated Cougars, while Tech’s Behren Morton returns from injury to pilot the Big 12’s most explosive offense averaging 499.4 yards per game.

The wind factor should push this under, but the AI thinks these offenses overcome the conditions. That’s either brilliant or about to look really stupid when this game finishes 17-14.

Laying Massive Chalk with Confidence

Ohio State covering 29.5 points at Purdue screams trap game. The Buckeyes have been dominant, but nearly 30 points on the road against any Big Ten team feels excessive. Purdue’s terrible, sure, but this is the kind of spread that gets backdoor covered in garbage time.

Indiana laying 14.5 at Penn State looks more reasonable. The Hoosiers are 9-0 and averaging 46.4 points per game while allowing just 10.8. Penn State has lost five straight and is playing with backup QB Ethan Grunkemeyer after Drew Allar’s season-ending injury. Indiana’s defense allows just 3.1 yards per carry and should dominate the trenches.

The model also likes Georgia laying 9.5 at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs need to win out for playoff positioning, but Mississippi State is 7-1 ATS this season. They’re better than their 0-4 SEC record suggests, having lost three conference games by one possession.

Dogs Barking Loud

Navy getting 27.5 points at Notre Dame looks attractive to the model. The Midshipmen run the nation’s top rushing offense by success rate (55.1%) and have converted 53.8% of third downs this season. Notre Dame should roll eventually, but Navy’s triple-option attack could keep this closer than expected early.

LSU getting 10.5 against Alabama also catches the AI’s attention. The Tigers are decimated by injuries with linebacker Whit Weeks out for the third straight game and the offense in shambles under interim coach Frank Wilson. But double digits in a rivalry game often provides value.

Iowa getting 6.5 at home against Oregon represents the sharpest play on the board. Kinnick Stadium remains one of college football’s toughest venues, and the Hawkeyes’ defense allows just 6.61% explosive play rate. Oregon needs this win badly after their only quality victory (Penn State) has lost all its luster.

AI College Football Picks – Results from Week 10

Finally, a winning week on spreads. The model went 6-4 ATS with smart plays on SMU keeping it close with Miami and Nebraska covering at home against USC. The Florida pick in Jacksonville paid off as the Gators kept the rivalry close despite their coaching turmoil.

The big miss was backing Penn State to stay within 20.5 against Ohio State. That one got ugly fast, with the Buckeyes winning by more than three touchdowns. But hits on both Arizona State and North Texas at around a touchdown helped salvage the week.

The totals side was ugly. Really ugly. Going 3-7 on over/unders dropped the season-long totals record back toward .500. The model missed badly on the Tennessee-Oklahoma shootout that hit total points and couldn’t figure out the scoring patterns across the board.

Through ten weeks, the AI sits at 44-45-1 ATS and 48-42 on totals. That’s basically break-even on spreads while slowly bleeding money on totals after accounting for juice. Not exactly the kind of record that inspires confidence heading into the season’s most important weeks.