Air Force vs Navy Odds, Prediction and Preview
By Blair Johnson in College Football
Published:
- Air Force (1-0) faces academy rival Navy (0-1) on the road at 3:30 pm ET Saturday on CBS
- Air Force beat Lafayette 35-14 in its Week 1 game, while Marshall blew out Navy 49-7 in the Midshipmen’s first outing of 2021
- See game odds, analysis and a prediction by scrolling below
Longtime Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo hopes his team can bounce back from a season-opening blowout loss at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium against Marshall with another home game Saturday. The Midshipmen host the Air Force Falcons in Week 2 – and hope to avenge a 40-7 defeat at the hands of their academy rival last season in Colorado Springs. The programs have alternated victories over the past eight seasons.
Troy Calhoun’s team is a six-point favorite on the road coming off its three-touchdown victory to kickoff the 2021 campaign. The Falcons were 3-3 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but were 11-2 in 2019 – including a 31-21 victory over Washington State in the Cheez-It Bowl. Navy was 3-7 last season and also finished 11-2 two years ago. The Middies also capped their 2019 season off with a win against a Power 5 conference opponent in a 20-17 win over Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.
The spread has not changed much since Air Force opened as a touchdown favorite.
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Air Force vs Navy Odds
| Team | Spread at DraftKings | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force Falcons | -6 (-105) | -225 | O 40.5 (-115) |
| Navy Midshipmen | +6 (-115) | +190 | U 40.5 (-105) |
Odds as of September 9th
The total is a paltry 40.5, but the under has gone 5-0 in the last five games where service academies have faced one another.
Where in the World is Diego?
With what should be an electric atmosphere on the 20th anniversary of 9/11 in Annapolis, this matchup features two of the better linebackers in the nation: Navy’s Diego Fagot and Air Force’s Demonte Meeks.
Fagot is a preseason All-American, and was a member of the American Athletic Conference Second Team last year and First Team in 2019. The 6-foot-3, 240-pound senior can single-handedly disrupt a lot of what the run-heavy Falcons want to do. Plus, Saturday presents a double-revenge game for the Fort Lauderdale native. In addition to Navy’s loss last season, Fagot went down with an injury in the game,
● LB Spotlight ●
Diego Fagot – Navy
• Fagot is one of the best Linebackers in #CFB and an elite tackler. In his career he has 188 Tackles, 24.5 Tackles for Loss, 8.5 Sacks, 1 INT, 4 Pass Breakups, 1 TD and 4 Forced Fumbles. pic.twitter.com/AepEbj1Rti
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) August 24, 2021
As for Meeks, the senior opted out of last season – but is off to a good start in 2021, accounting for four tackles and 0.5 sack in last week’s opener. Two years ago, he earned a spot on the all-conference second team defense after leading the team with 98 tackles and nine tackles for loss while also pitching in with four sacks. Whichever backer has the bigger game may go a long way in deciding this one.
Good to Have Options
Brad Roberts led the Falcons with 461 rushing yards and five touchdowns on a team-high 64 carries last season. The junior running back continued his heavy workload with 111 yards on 25 carries against Lafayette in Week 1. Air Force quarterback Haaziq Daniels, the second-leading rusher in Air Force’s option offense last season, carried 19 times for 72 yards. But the breakout star of the game for Calhoun was Micah Davis.
The sophomore wide receiver needed just four carries to gain 101 yards and score twice. Davis also caught two passes for 27 yards — including one for the highlight reel.
Check out this catch from @AF_Football's Micah Davis from today…I slowed it down for y'all to see just how impressive it was👀@KKTV11Sports 🏈 pic.twitter.com/q372xUA4jB
— Megan Hiler (@MegThePIO) September 4, 2021
Omar Fattah, Elijah Robinson, and receiver Brandon Lewis combined for nine rushing attempts and 39 yards but will all likely see more touches this week. When it was all over, the Falcons had outrushed the Leopards 375-43. If Air Force can get similar outputs from their slew of “options” Saturday, Navy will be in serious trouble of falling to 0-2.
Anchors Away
Issues at the quarterback position were a big reason why Navy struggled last season. After Week 1 of the 2021 season, the position is still uncertain. Tai Lavatai, Xavier Arline, and Maasai Maynor all threw passes against Marshall. Along with fullback Tyler Goslin, whose lone pass attempt was intercepted, the quartet went a ghastly 5-of-16 through the air for 61 yards.
Xavier Arline has taken over as the quarterback for Navy. We expected this.
— Bill Wagner (@BWagner_CapGaz) September 4, 2021
Of course, like Air Force, the ground game is where the Midshipmen make their hay. Navy had 337 yards rushing against Marshall. But the team’s yards-per-carry average was simply below average against the Thundering Herd. Arline and Lavatai each ran 16 times, combining for only 94 yards. Arline showed flashes, finishing with 76 rushing yards and the team’s only touchdown. The sophomore was 2-for-3 for 26 yards passing, and, as the most promising runner and passer of the day, should get the starting nod against the Falcons.
But will it matter? The Falcons look to be more adept at operating their offense. And for that, I’m fading the home team.
- The pick: Air Force -6 (-105)
Sports Writer
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
