Auburn Listed as 2.5-Point Favorites at Florida – Picks & Odds

• #7 Auburn faces #10 Florida in the Swamp on Saturday afternoon (Oct. 5)
• Both teams are 5-0, but Auburn has played a much tougher schedule
• Auburn is a small road favorite, with the Tiger defense expected to hound Florida’s backup QB, Kyle Trask

The SEC slate has an elite matchup in Week 6 when #7 Auburn heads to the Swamp to face #10 Florida on Saturday (Oct. 5th, 3:30 PM ET).

Both teams are undefeated but it’s the road Tigers that have the edge when you look at the Auburn vs Florida odds.

#7 Auburn vs #10 Florida Odds

*Odds taken 10/03.

This is the only matchup of Week 6 between teams appearing in the top-15 of the National Championship odds. Auburn has received more attention nationally and deserves to be the favorite in this game. I’m riding with them to win on the road for three key reasons.

Trask Could Struggle In First True Test

When starting QB Feleipe Franks went down, the Gators turned to Kyle Trask and, admittedly, he’s been great. He’s completed 51 of 66 passing, giving him a 77.3% completion percentage with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

The stats aren’t the problem, the competition is. Florida has played a cream-puff schedule and Trask didn’t play against the only good defense, Miami. He saw time versus Tennessee-Martin, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

It was only one start, but Kyle Trask looked efficient throwing the ball for the Gators. pic.twitter.com/uSFTc06lXP

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 26, 2019

Auburn is nothing like any of those teams, so this is the first time we’ll really see what Trask is made of. The Tigers defense ranks 10th in ESPN’s efficiency rankings and that could be a big problem for Florida. Their 31st-ranked offense is the worst unit of either team in the game and if they fall behind early it could be really difficult for them to rebound.

Nix & Whitlow Could Shine In The Swamp

Bo Nix has taken college football by storm. He grew up an Auburn fan and is getting the chance to quarterback the team as a freshman. Not only is he playing, but he has the Tigers in legitimate playoff contention. He’s completed 72 of his 125 passes and has 7 touchdown passes on the year.

Unlike Trask, who is missing a quality win on his resume, Nix has already gotten the better of Oregon, Texas A&M and Mississippi State this year.

While it would be disingenuous to say he played well against the Ducks, on the whole, he got the job done in the fourth quarter and he’s showed marked progress in the weeks since.

Auburn has the 13th-ranked offense in the efficiency rankings and it’s not only because of Nix. Running back Jatarvious Whitlow has been dynamic while compiling 463 yards on the ground to go along with 7 touchdowns.

If Florida finds a way to shut down Nix through the air, Whitlow gives them another elite player who can move the chains.

Bet Auburn Before The Line Moves

At many books, the line is already Auburn -3. You can still find it at 2.5 with a reasonably -112 juice. That half-point could be huge in what should be a defensive battle.

Playing in the swamp is never easy but there’s a big enough talent gap between these two teams that I’m comfortable laying the 2.5. Take the Tigers but do not wait until kick off to do it. I’d expect the spread to be Auburn -3 across the board come Saturday afternoon.

PICK: Auburn -2.5 (-112)