Boise State vs South Florida Prediction, Odds & How to Watch Thursday College Football (Aug. 28)

• Boise State heads to Florida to battle South Florida in Week 1 college football action!
• The latest Boise State vs USF odds favor the Broncos by 5.5 points
• Read below for my Boise State vs South Florida prediction, odds, and how to watch.

On Thursday, August 28, 2025, college football fans have a pretty significant game to bet on. This involves Top 25-ranked Boise State. The Broncos travel to take on South Florida (USF) from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

This game presents so many dilemmas and questions. For one, what does Boise State look like without Ashton Jeanty? With Jeanty getting drafted in the first round by the Las Vegas Raiders, that leaves an offensive void. Meanwhile, South Florida has one of the toughest starts to a season. The Bulls play Boise State, then Florida and Miami (FL). One cannot say USF is ducking teams non-conference-wise.

Boise State figures to win a close clash with the over/under set at 62.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and streamed on ESPN Unlimited. Kickoff will be scheduled promptly for 5:30 p.m. ET.

Boise State vs South Florida Prediction

• Winner Prediction: Boise State (-215 ML at Caesars)

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Now, Week 0 taught us some undeniable lessons. For one, UNLV’s quarterback situation was disastrous early, and so was the defense. South Florida did win five of their final seven games last year, including the Hawaii Bowl against San Jose State. Alex Golesh believes in his 2025 version of the Bulls. Byrum Brown is healthy after a leg injury wrecked his 2024 campaign. Boise State has Maddux Mansen, who will have more expected of him. He threw for 3.018 yards and 23 touchdowns last season.

South Florida allowed 278.8 yards per game through the air in 2024. That was second-worst in the AAC and gave up 29.9 points per contest. Boise State is bigger in every way and especially on defense. They added a good deal of bulk and that should control the line of scrimmage against the Bulls. The Broncos prefer to grind out the clock, which typically lowers the potential score here.

Spencer Danielson has a rather good team. This game features a good deal of uncertainty given what happened in Week 0, but Boise State is well coached and going against a team that is mediocre at home (3-3 in 2024). Boise State finishes well, and South Florida has question marks there.

Boise State now has +180 odds to make the College Football Playoff. Do not count out Boise State as they remain the class of the Mountain West Conference. This is their swan song as the Broncos move to the Pac-12 next Fall.

Boise State vs South Florida Picks:

Now, usually, Boise State may not be tested here. However, the weather in South Florida this time of year is unique. Note the start time. With possible thunderstorms before game time, it could be even more soupy than usual. Fatigue might become a factor for a Broncos team that typically thrives in fourth-quarter conditions.

Boise State knows hostile environments, and nearly pulled off a major upset last year in Oregon. Their coaching staff will be ready.

The big question is this. Can they score enough points and contain South Florida’s explosive offense to more field goals than touchdowns?

I am taking a big leap here but like the Over last week, we side with this Under this time. It likely will not be by much, but the Under sneaks through late along with that Boise State cover.

Thursday CFB Picks:

• Boise State -5.5 Spread (-110) and Game Total Under 62.5 (-108)

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Boise State vs South Florida Odds

Boise State is favored by 5.5 points with -225 moneyline odds, implying a 68.55% win probability for the Rebels. South Florida are now +185 underdogs, representing a 35.71% chance to win, per the oddsmakers.

The total is set at 62.5 points, with a little juice on the Over at -112.

Odds as of August 28, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Examine the best College Football betting apps for Boise State-South Florida.

Line movement in this game has stayed mostly between 5.5 and 6.5-points since the CFB Week 1 odds dropped. The spread money is expected to inch toward South Florida a bit as Thursday night draws closer.

Boise State vs USF Head to Head

The programs have never met before. That surprised a few people.

Boise State did beat Florida State once upon a time in 2019 by a score of 36-31.

South Florida will need some help to stay close late. Either way, this will be quite the first meeting between the schools on Thursday night.