CFP National Championship Betting Trends for Ohio State-Notre Dame

• Betting favorites have covered the spread in five straight CFP Championship games
• The Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 title games, with an average of 57.8 total points scored
• See below for the most insightful betting trends for Monday’s National Championship

We’re in for an epic showdown in the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship, as the Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Buckeyes enter as 8.5-point favorites, but don’t overlook the Golden Domers, who have covered the spread in 13 of their 15 games this season.

Ohio State is looking to claim its first national title since 2014, while Notre Dame hasn’t hoisted the trophy since 1988. The Buckeyes are appearing in their sixth CFP in the last decade, while the Irish are making their first appearance in the title game since losing to Alabama in 2012.

Will Ohio State assert its dominance as a heavy favorite, or can Notre Dame pull off the upset as a sizable underdog? We dive into the key CFP betting trends and stats you need to know before placing a wager on this blockbuster showdown.

Favorites Dominating Title Games (Lately)

Favorites have been crushing it in recent CFP Championships, covering the spread in each of the last 5 title games. But before this streak, underdogs had their day, going 4-0 ATS from 2015-18.

Here’s a look at how favorites and underdogs have fared in title games over the last 9 years:

Recent National Championship Spreads

The recent dominance of favorites can be attributed to the stellar play of talent-heavy championship teams like LSU (2019), Alabama (2020), and Georgia (2021-22). These juggernauts won their respective title games by an average margin of 21.5 points, easily covering some hefty spreads along the way.

However, the success of underdogs from 2015-18 proves that teams getting points in the CFP Championship are more than capable of keeping things competitive. During that 4-year stretch, underdogs not only covered the spread each time out, but Clemson also pulled off a pair of outright upsets over Alabama as sizable pups in 2016 (+6.5) and 2018 (+5).

With Ohio State giving 8.5 points to Notre Dame this year, bettors must decide if the favorite trend stays hot, or if the underdog bark turns into bite once again.

Explosive Offenses Lead to High-Scoring Affairs

If you like wagering on game totals, there is a clear trend to be aware of when it comes to the CFP Championship. The Over has cashed in 7 of the last 10 title games, with those 10 affairs averaging a whopping 57.8 total points.

Here’s a breakdown of the totals from each of those championships:

Recent National Championship Game Over/Unders

A deeper dive into the numbers reveals that Overs are 10-4 when the total closes at 54.5 or lower, while Unders own a slight 7-5 edge when the number is 55 or higher. This year’s total of 45.5 is tied for the second-lowest on the list, so it will be interesting to track which way the action comes in.

It’s also worth noting that the first half Over went 8-6 in these games while the second half Over was 9-5. If you like the full-game Over but are worried about garbage time impacting the final score, consider pivoting to a first-half Over bet.

Recent Matchup History Between the Buckeyes and Irish

While Ohio State and Notre Dame are two of the most storied programs in college football, they’ve only met twice in recent memory – a home-and-home series in 2022 and 2023. The Buckeyes won both games but failed to cover as favorites, while both contests also went Under the total.

Here is a quick summary of their last two meetings:

Ohio State 17, Notre Dame 14 on 09/23/23

• Notre Dame covered as a 3-point underdog
• Game went Under the total of 55.5

Ohio State 21, Notre Dame 10 on 09/3/22

• Notre Dame covered as a 15-point dog
• Game stayed Under the total of 55

While it’s tempting to read too much into this tiny sample size, bettors should take these results with a grain of salt. Not only were both of those regular season contests, but Ohio State’s roster has also experienced significant turnover in the two years since.

Nonetheless, those low-scoring affairs could be an indication that these teams are more familiar with each other than the oddsmakers are giving them credit for. If Notre Dame’s defense can once again give Ohio State’s high-powered attack fits, the Under is certainly in play for their rubber match.

Buckeyes are Bowl Game Juggernauts

The Buckeyes may have had their struggles in big games under Ryan Day, but they’ve been absolutely dynamite in bowl season recently. Ohio State is riding a 6-1 ATS run in their last 7 postseason appearances, with their only non-cover coming against Alabama in the 2020 CFP title game.

Ohio State has been installed as favorites in each of their postseason games this winter, covering by an average margin of 15.67 points. Simply put, they are obliterating Vegas’ expectations.

Recent OSU Postseason Games

The Buckeyes have prevailed by double-digits in their last four CFP victories. The college football world has become well aware of how good this Ohio State superpower can be when they’re firing on all cylinders.

Irish are Road Warriors in the Underdog Role

Death, taxes, and Notre Dame covering as a road underdog – those appear to be the three certainties in life. The Fighting Irish have been a point-spread assassin in this role Since 2020, going 8-2 ATS when catching points away from South Bend.

Most recently, Marcus Freeman’s troops stunned Penn State 24-21 as small dogs in the Orange Bowl. They also pulled off the outright upset at Texas A&M as 3-point pups in Week 1. They’re now an incredible 13-2 ATS overall this year, with their only two non-covers coming against MAC opponents.

Here is a rundown of Notre Dame’s last 10 road games as an underdog outside of South Bend:

Recent Notre Dame Non-Home Underdog Games

Notre Dame has consistently shown the ability to compete with blue blood programs, even though they haven’t always necessarily pulled out the victory. The only time they haven’t covered an underdog number away from home recently was in 2022 against USC.

In that game vs the Trojans, ND still put up 400+ yards of offense and got a big performance from QB Drew Pyne. However, Austin Jones and the USC run defense decimated the Irish rush defense for over 200 yards on the ground.

There are clearly strong trends pointing toward each side covering the spread Monday night, which is part of why the public money is divided in the CFP betting splits.