Chuba Hubbard Enters Top-10 Heisman Favorites at +3300 Odds; Can the OK State RB Win the Trophy?

*Odds taken 10/02/19.

Hubbard Putting Up Ridiculous Numbers

Hubbard turned in the top rushing performance of the season when he ran for 296 yards against Kansas State in Week 5. The Oklahoma State RB has three 200-yard games on his resume already and leads the nation with a whopping 938 rushing yards.

Hubbard is blowing his competition out of the water. Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins has the second-most rushing yards, and he’s a full 284 yards behind Hubbard.

The OK State sophomore is also averaging 187.6 yards per game to lead the nation, which is well-ahead of second-place Jonathan Taylor of Wisconsin, who is averaging 139.8 per game.

In short, Hubbard is putting up  video-game-like numbers, but that doesn’t mean he has a realistic chance to win the Heisman.

RB’s to Win the Heisman

The Heisman typically goes to a quarterback; only three running backs have won the trophy since the year 2000.  Derrick Henry (2015) and Mark Ingram Jr. (2009) are the two most-recent running backs to win the Heisman. They were both the best offensive player on 14-win Alabama teams that won the National Championship.

Hubbard’s individual statistics match up very well to recent RB Heisman winners. He’s on pace for over 2,000 rushing yards, which would be significantly more than Ingram’s 1,658 rushing yards and on par with Henry’s 2,219.

Chuba Hubbard vs. the last four RBs to win the Heisman in terms of rushing yards through 5 games:

1. 1,088 – Ricky Williams (TEX 1998)
2. 938 – @Hubbard_RMN (#okstate, 2019)
3. 773 – Ron Dayne (WIS 1999)
4. 570 – Derrick Henry (ALA 2015)
5. 487 – Mark Ingram (ALA 2009)

— Gavin Lang (@glang1) September 29, 2019

But Oklahoma State is a middle-tier Big 12 team that already lost to Texas and has to face Oklahoma at the end of the year.

Even if Hubbard continues his torrid pace, OK State is not going to be in the title conversation, and at least one of the teams with an elite QB will be.

Hubbard vs. Competition 

I would really like this Hubbard storyline if there wasn’t a battle between so many hyper-talented quarterbacks at the top of the odds. The 2018 Heisman-runner-up, Tua Tagovailoa, is having an excellent season for Alabama, while former ‘Bama QB Jalen Hurts is putting up ridiculous numbers for the Sooners.

Said it earlier this year, but: Watching Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma only makes me appreciate Tua Tagovailoa even more. Hurts is incredibly talented… only he lost the Bama job to Tua and never came close to getting it back. Dont think we realize just how INSANELY special Tua is

— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) September 29, 2019

Meanwhile, LSU’s Joe Burrow and Ohio State’s Justin Fields are leading prolific offenses that have dominated opponents. Both Burrow and Fields have a chance to lead their teams to the College Football Playoff and make a compelling case for the Heisman.

Running backs only win the Heisman in down years for QBs. This year is as far from that as possible.

Verdict on Hubbard’s Heisman Hopes

Hubbard is doing something special at Oklahoma State, but there’s just too many things working against him.

The Heisman has become a QB trophy and there are too many talented pivots in this year’s race. Hubbard also isn’t on a playoff contender, while the quarterbacks in front of him have legit shots at leading their teams to a national title.

I would see value in laying money on Hubbard as a longshot to receive an invite to New York, but in terms of actually winning the trophy, Tagovailoa and Hurts have just been too good to make betting Hubbard a smart choice.

Hubbard is a great story and my pick for the Doak Walker Award, but the Heisman is going to a QB.