College Football Upset Picks Today (Saturday, Sept. 30)

• Week 5 features more opportunities for the underdog player
• Arkansas, Southern Miss and Coastal Carolina are worth the points
• Read below for analysis and predictions for college football Week 5 upsets

Arkansas, Southern Miss and Coastal Carolina provide ample opportunity for the underdog player in Week 5 of the college football team.

Arkansas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five against Texas A&M in the 15th Southwest Classic. The game is played at Arkansas alum Jerry Jones’ neutral AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, which is a 2 3/4-hour drive from College Station and 5 1/2-hour drive from Fayetteville.

Southern Miss plays its Sun Belt home opener and was 3-0 as a home dog last year. Coastal Carolina has won the last three against Georgia Southern.

Our Upset Pick #1 is 3-1 this season, with a net gain of plus-5.27 units on the moneyline. Here we go again.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M Odds

Odds from BetMGM on Sept. 29. 

Let’s analyze the Week 5 CFB lines and offer you our college football upset picks for today (Saturday, Sept 30)

Upset Pick #1: Porker Pigs Like This Spot

The 15th Southwest Classic will be held game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, giving Aggies will have the “neutral field” advantage. It may not matter. K.J. Jefferson and the Razorbacks are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings and have outgained the Aggies in each of the last four. The Pigs had a nine-minute time of possession advantage in a 37-34 loss last week at LSU, the best team either has faced.

📈 Caught a couple legends this week and matched the school record for touchdown responsibility.

Work to do… pic.twitter.com/WTEwfVrZ7i

— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 24, 2023

Arkansas has lost two in a row — it outgained a good BYU team by 100 yards in a 38-31 home loss two weeks ago but did itself in with 14 penalties and missed a field goal. Former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino joined A&M as the offensive coordinator this season, yet the Aggies win with defense. Max Johnson threw for two touchdowns in a 27-10 victory over Auburn last week after replacing starter Connor Weigman, who suffered an injury late in the second quarter and is considered day to day.

This is a trap game for the Aggies, who have Alabama and Tennessee the next two weeks and are 1-4-1 ATS as a neutral site favorite since 2019. The teams are rated as near equals in the CFB win totals. Arkansas opened at +220 on the moneyline.

Pick: Arkansas (+185)

Texas State vs Southern Miss Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 29.

Upset Pick #2: Southern Miss Starts Over

Southern Miss punched above its weight in early-season losses to Florida State and Tulane, although the 66-13 loss in  Tallahassee on Sept. 9 was more about generating revenue (a $1.5 million guaranteed payday) than competition. The Golden Eagles enter after a 44-37 hangover loss at Arkansas State last week, when they outgained the Red Wolves but were hurt by two interceptions.

CFB 2023 ACTIVE LEADERS:
PASSING YDS: Sam Hartman/ND 12,967
RUSHING YDS: Frank Gore Jr/Southern Miss 2,891
RECEPTIONS: Zakhari Franklin/Ole Miss 262
TDs: Zakhari Franklin 37
SACKS: Richard Jibunor/Troy 21.5
TFL: Kameron Butler/UVA 36
INT: Antavious Lane/UNC 11#CFB2023 #Leaders pic.twitter.com/cuCMBan1m9

— CFB Focus 🏈 (@cffmwachsman) July 3, 2023

Southern Miss excelled in this spot a year ago, going 3-0 ATS as a home underdog, and rea playing their Sun Belt league opener. The Golden Eagles beat Texas State 20-14 as a 2.5-point favorite with a late touchdown in San Marcos last season. Frank Gore Jr., who left the Tulane game with a left foot injury, returned with 132 yards in 20 carries against Arkansas State and had 91 yards in 20 carries against Texas State last year. The game opened with the Bobcats a 7-point favorite as each hopes to gain ground in the odds to win the Sun Belt.

Pick: Southern Miss (+196)

Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern Odds

Odds from BetMGM on Sept. 29.

Upset Pick #3: Coastal Carolina’s Streak Continues

Coastal Carolina is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the last three in this series that matches contenders for the Sun Belt East title. Chanticleer fifth-year senior quarterback Grayson McCall has been his usual efficient self this season, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,003 yards despite an offensive system change by first-year head coach Tim Beck.

Sun Belt Top 5 Passing Yards

Davis Brin (Georgia Southern) – 1289
TJ Finley (Texas State) – 1055
Gunnar Watson (Troy) – 1047
Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina) – 1003
Darren Grainger (Georgia State) – 994

— Gunslinger Buzz (@GunslingerBuzz) September 27, 2023

Coastal Carolina is 28-5 when McCall starts, and he has thrown a touchdown pass in 27 straight games. The opportunistic Chants are tied with Kentucky for the FBS lead with three defensive touchdowns and have a plus-5 turnover margin. Eagles senior and Tulsa transfer quarterback Davis Brin lets it fly, with 1,289 passing yards in four games, but he has thrown seven picks.  This is a season-check game for Coastal, whose losses are to UCLA and Georgia State.

Pick: Coastal Carolina (+210)

Last week: -3 units

Season: -.73 units