Early Iowa State vs Kansas State Prediction, Pick & Odds – CFB Week 0

• The Iowa State Cyclones are 3-point underdogs against the Kansas State Wildcats in Week 0 action (August 23)
• The Big 12 rivals meet in Dublin, Ireland, with early conference implications on the line
• Check out our early Iowa State vs Kansas State prediction, pick, and odds below

The Big 12 conference race kicks off before the season even starts. Iowa State and Kansas State meet in Dublin for a Week 0 showdown that could determine the league’s playoff representative.

Both teams feel they have a legit chance to take home the Big 12 title in 2025. The Cyclones are coming off an 11-3 campaign that ended in the conference championship game, while K-State finished 9-4 and stayed in the title hunt until Thanksgiving weekend.

Online sportsbooks have the Wildcats as slight road favorites in the Week 0 college football odds.

Iowa State vs Kansas State Odds

Kansas State opened as 3.5-point favorites, with some books bringing this number down to 3. The total sits at 49.5, with early action split between over bettors expecting fireworks and under backers banking on first-game sloppiness.

Per the college football public betting trends, the majority of spread tickets have backed Iowa State.

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Odds as of August 18 at BetMGM. Be sure to check out BetMGM rewards before betting on Week 0 action.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm ET from Aviva Stadium in Dublin, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Cyclones Built Different Under Campbell

Matt Campbell’s teams don’t beat themselves. That sounds like coach-speak, but the numbers back it up. Iowa State went 8-6 against the spread last season, consistently keeping games within reach. They’ll need that trademark discipline after losing NFL-caliber talent at receiver (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel) and cornerback (Darien Porter).

The offense returns quarterback Rocco Becht, who threw for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns as a sophomore while adding 318 rushing yards and eight scores. His new targets include East Carolina transfer Chase Sowell (averaged nearly 20 yards per catch) and UCF transfer Xavier Townsend.

Most importantly, Iowa State owned the line of scrimmage in last year’s 29-21 win over Kansas State, controlling the game on the ground with nearly 200 rush yards. The backfield duo of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama gives them a proven rushing attack that should translate to neutral sites.

Kansas State’s Experience Edge

While Iowa State breaks in new skill players, Kansas State returns established contributors. Quarterback Avery Johnson may not match Becht’s passing production (2,712 yards, 25 TDs), but his mobility creates problems for defenses. Johnson rushed for 605 yards and seven touchdowns last season.

The Wildcats’ biggest edge sits up front. They return five to six senior offensive linemen and added transfers Brandon Sneh, Amos Talalele, and George Fitzpatrick for depth. That experience matters against an Iowa State defense that struggled against the run.

Yes, the Cyclones boasted the nation’s top pass defense. But they ranked around 70th nationally against the run, allowing opponents to grind out yards between the tackles. Dylan Edwards, who averaged 7 yards per carry for K-State last season, should feast if the Wildcats stick to their identity.

2024 ATS Records

Last year’s betting trends matter early in the 2025 season. Iowa State consistently covered spreads, while Kansas State struggled despite winning nine games. That’s a red flag when considering laying points with the Wildcats.

Dublin Weather Decides the Winner?

Dublin’s forecast calls for typical Irish conditions: temperatures in the mid-60s with rain expected at kickoff. That favors power running and ball security over precision passing and timing routes. Kansas State promoted from within at offensive coordinator, keeping their zone-read system that suits these conditions. Iowa State faces questions at left tackle and center that wet conditions could expose.

Kansas State vs Iowa State Prediction

Last year’s game can provide some insight into how the 2025 rematch could play out. Iowa State won 29-21 despite getting outgained almost 2-to-1 through the air. They just ran it down K-State’s throat and controlled the clock.

Johnson’s scrambling ability could flip the script this time, but ISU also returns a veteran QB and is the better-coached squad. The Cyclones’ 8-6 ATS record comes from well-disciplined football. They don’t turn it over. They don’t take dumb penalties.

Kansas State deserves to be favored with their offensive line experience and Johnson’s playmaking ability. They might win by controlling the line of scrimmage and shortening the game. But three points on a neutral field against a team that consistently covers? That’s too much respect for what I power rank as nearly a pick ’em game in Dublin.

My pick here is the Cyclones to keep it close, potentially stealing it outright if the weather gets truly nasty. You have to go back to 2020 for the last time Iowa State lost a season opener. Take the points and trust Campbell’s track record in tight games.