Expert Ohio State vs Texas Prediction, Latest Odds & Trends for Cotton Bowl

• We’ve made our Ohio State vs Texas prediction for the Cotton Bowl CFP semifinal on Friday
• The Cotton Bowl betting line has shifted significantly from Ohio State -4.5 to -6.5
• Read below for our expert Texas vs Ohio State prediction, updated odds and public betting trends

Two college football powerhouses collide in Arlington as the No. 5 Texas Longhorns face the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes in a Cotton Bowl Classic that doubles as a College Football Playoff semifinal.

This heavyweight clash kicks off at 4:30 PM ET on Friday night (January 10, 2025), at AT&T Stadium, with the winner earning a shot at Orange Bowl champion Notre Dame in the national title game.

Ohio State opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but the betting public has jumped all over the Buckeyes, pushing the line up to -6. The total sits at 52.5, with sharp money hammering the Under. But are the surging Buckeyes being overvalued?

Ohio State vs Texas Prediction

Ohio State has been flat-out dominant in the playoffs, crushing Tennessee 42-17 and getting sweet revenge against Oregon with a 41-21 beatdown in the Rose Bowl. Quarterback Will Howard looks locked in, finding his groove with phenomenal freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes sit atop the charts in EPA per play on both sides of the ball – pretty scary stuff.

But don’t write off these Longhorns just yet. Texas brings the nation’s third-best EPA per play allowed (-0.143) and a suffocating pass defense that’s giving up a measly 5.5 yards per attempt. Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron and freshman sensation Colin Simmons anchor a defense that could give Ohio State’s high-powered offense fits.

Jeremiah Smith vs Jahdae Barron🍿

Who wins this matchup? pic.twitter.com/qD0yPhLzY6

— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 8, 2025

On the offensive side, Texas QB Quinn Ewers (you might remember his brief stint in Columbus) has found his rhythm with speedster Matthew Golden. If Ewers can expose Ohio State’s struggles defending tight ends and running backs, the Longhorns could keep this thing interesting.

A heavy dose of backs Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue might be just what the doctor ordered to control the clock and keep the Buckeyes’ offense watching from the sideline. Michigan has offered the blueprint for beating this OSU team, after all.

Quintrevion Wisner was running all over the Aggies tonight 😤 pic.twitter.com/iRcpEjGodA

— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) December 1, 2024

The Longhorns should have a serious home-field advantage in Arlington, and their experience in nail-biters like that double-OT thriller against Arizona State could prove huge. Never count out Steve Sarkisian’s halftime adjustments, either.

While Ohio State deserves to be favored, that 6-point spread feels a touch high. Texas’s elite defense and the potential for a old-school, grind-it-out affair make the Under worth a long look, too.

A key trend to note is that Ohio State is just 1-5 ATS as a neutral-site favorite under Ryan Day. It’s hard to pick against the Buckeyes right now, but we will take the opposite side of an inflated point spread any day of the week.

Official Cotton Bowl Picks:

• Texas +6 (-110)
• Under 52.5 (-115)

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 Updated OSU vs Texas Odds

Before the quarterfinals, oddsmakers viewed this matchup as a virtual toss-up, with look-ahead lines close to a pick ’em. However, Ohio State’s dominant wins over Tennessee and Oregon, juxtaposed with Texas’ narrow escape against Arizona State, caused a dramatic shift in the betting market.

The Buckeyes are now 6-point favorites, a far cry from the initial projections. The line movement suggests that recent performances have heavily influenced public perception, potentially overvaluing Ohio State’s chances of covering the spread.

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Odds as of January 10th, at ESPN Bet. Explore our ESPN Bet sportsbook review or check other top betting sites.

As the spread has grown, the value on Texas has increased. While the Longhorns are drawing less betting action, the inflated line makes them an intriguing underdog play, especially considering their strong defense and the potential for a close, low-scoring contest.

The total has dipped from 54.5 to 52.5 points, indicating a belief that Texas’ defensive prowess and slower-paced offensive approach could result in fewer points scored than initially anticipated.

Ohio State vs Texas Public Betting Trends

The public has heavily backed Ohio State, with the Buckeyes garnering 63% of the spread tickets and money. This lopsided action has driven the line movement in Ohio State’s favor, further increasing the value on Texas.

On the moneyline, Ohio State is receiving 82% of the tickets but only 65% of the money, while Texas is attracting 35% of the cash on just 18% of the bets. This discrepancy suggests that some sharp bettors are leaning towards the Longhorns pulling off the upset.

OSU vs Texas Public Betting Percentages

The Under has been a popular choice, drawing 64% of the tickets and 62% of the money. Bettors seem to believe that Texas’ strong defense and potential ball-control offense could keep the scoring down.

As kickoff nears, monitor the lines for any additional movement. If the spread continues to rise based on Ohio State’s popularity, Texas could become an even more enticing bet. Similarly, further dips in the total might signal that the Under is the sharp play.

In a matchup once considered a coin flip, Ohio State has emerged as a heavy favorite. However, the betting value lies with the underdog Longhorns, who have the defensive chops and motivation to keep this semifinal closer than the current odds suggest.