Expert Oregon vs Indiana Prediction, Spread & Line Movement – Peach Bowl

• The No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers are 3.5-point favorites vs the No. 5 Oregon Ducks in the CFP semifinal
• Indiana is the only team to beat the Ducks this season
• See my Oregon vs Indiana Peach Bowl prediction below, with the latest spread and line movement

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The top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers (14-0) and fifth-seeded Oregon Ducks (13-1) battle Friday night at the Peach Bowl with a trip to the national championship final, where the Miami Hurricanes await.

The unbeaten Hoosiers are the betting favorite in the college football odds, looking to make their first-ever appearance in the national title game.

They’re also the only team to hang a loss on the Ducks all season, with Oregon seeking its third trip to the championship final since 2010.

Action gets underway at 7:30pm ET from the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA, with ESPN carrying the broadcast coverage.

Oregon vs Indiana Prediction

These two teams are near mirror images of each other – particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

Oregon and Indiana are inside the Top 6 in total yards, and inside the Top 30 in passing yards per contest. They have equally potent run games with the Ducks churning out 220.7 yards per contest, and Indiana at 206.1, both inside the Top 15.

These are top eight scoring offenses, with elite QB play centring it all: Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza leads the nation with 36 passing scores, paired with 3,172 passing yards and a 72.3% completion percentage, and a national-best 187.0 QB rating.

Mendoza is currently the projected top pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, while Oregon’s Dante Moore has played his way into the conversation as well, as he’s thrown for 3,280 yards and 28 touchdowns, while helping the Ducks to a 166.8 QB rating (6th).

Oregon has been stellar en route to the semis, crushing James Madison 51-34 in Round 1, before shutting out Texas Tech 23-0 on New Year’s Day. Before you think that the Ducks’ offense is stalling, consider the Red Raiders had arguably the best defense in college football, and just surrendered the second-most points in a game for them all season.

Oregon vs Indiana: Key Offensive Stats

Indiana needed to outlast top-ranked Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, a 13-10 slugfest to earn their First Round bye in the CFP.

They then flexed their top-seeded chops, punishing Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals. That’s their third win in four games over a ranked team by double digits this season.

One of those other wins was against Oregon, with the Hoosiers going on the road and hanging 30 on the home team to win by 10 points.

Defense will play a factor here (it has to), as both schools rank inside the Top 30 in all major defensive categories.

But that October 11 matchup showed that, even going against primo defenses, the two teams are able to put up points, combining for 50 in the first meeting. The difference in that one was Moore getting picked off twice, part of Oregon’s offense sputtering to a season-low 267 yards.

Indiana now has the unenviable task of having to do that twice in a season, and that’s why I’m steering clear of a winner or the spread. It can go either way.

Instead, I’m gambling that the Oregon vs Indiana rematch plays similarly to the first: two powerhouse schools throwing haymakers all game, with the last team possessing the ball likely getting a chance to take the victory.

Indiana has scored at least 30 points in 10 of its last 13 games, while Oregon has lit the scoreboard up for 40+ in three of the last five games.

Expect both teams to leave it all out on the field in a high-scoring affair for a trip to the natty.

Oregon vs Indiana Peach Bowl Spread

Odds as of Jan 9 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games. The interactive table above will automatically update as the college football odds move over the course of the day.

The best upset odds available are at bet365, where bettors can grab an Oregon upset straight up at +155 odds. Taking the Ducks to cover as 3.5-point underdogs comes with -105 odds, while Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite at bet365 at -110.

At FanDuel, the Hoosiers are sitting at a short -178 to win their 15th straight game of the season.

If you’re targeting the Over, DraftKings is offering a line of 48.5 points, while Under bettors should travel to bet365 to grab an extra half point to 49.

As for the college football public betting trends, the public is laying heavy on an Indiana win, 77% of the bets and 70% of the money the top seed. The Hoosiers are also heavily favored as 3.5-point favorites, with 65% of the bets and 68% of the money heading their way.

The public is also banging the Over between these powerhouse offenses, with 66% of the bets and 63% of the money on the teams going Over 48.5 points.

Oregon vs Indiana Line Movement

Though Oregon vs Indiana started at four points, the betting line has shifted just once, and has stayed consistently at 3.5 points.

All quiet on the moneyline front as well: most markets have kept the Ducks in the +150 range to win, while the Hoosiers have had some slight movements, reaching a short -190 before climbing into the -175 to -180 range.

The most fluctuation has been on the total, which might be a harder read, considering both schools boast Grade A defenses to go along with A+ offenses.

Early lines were as low as 46.5 points, but the line has crept up to 48.5 points in the leadup to the game. A few major books, like bet365 and Caesars, have inched it up to 49 points.