FCS Semi-Final Preview: Illinois State vs Villanova Prediction, Pick & Line

• Winners of 11 in a row, Villanova (12-2) hosts Illinois State (11-4) tonight in the FCS semifinals on ESPN2 at 7:30 p.m.
• Illinois State is a slight favorite on the road after being underdogs the last two weeks. They are 14-1 the last two years on the road against FCS opponents.
• Continue reading for my Illinois State vs Villanova prediction, pick, and line for this FCS semifinal.

It’s a Cinderella story, football version, when 12-seed Villanova (12-2, 10-4 ATS) greets visiting Illinois State (11-4, 9-6 ATS) tonight in a Football Championship Subdivision semifinal.

Illinois State finished third in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. Neither team was expected to still be playing.

I have your look at the Illinois State vs Villanova line, along with my pick and prediction for this FCS semifinal.

Illinois State vs Villanova Prediction

My Illinois State vs Villanova prediction: Villanova wins in an upset

My prediction for Illinois State vs Villanova sees the Wildcats pulling off the upset in a low-scoring game at home. Despite being 2.5-point underdogs, Villanova’s home-field advantage should prove decisive in this FCS semifinal.

Illinois State has played all three playoff games on the road to get here. The big upset came in the second round when it knocked off top seed North Dakota State on a late two-point pass.

Villanova shocked 5-seed Lehigh in the quarterfinals and then overcame a 14-0 deficit last week to beat Tarleton State.

You get to this stage, and you’re like, who beat these teams?

Villanova didn’t win its conference either. It lost to Monmouth in its conference opener, but the CAA is so big that not every team plays each other, so it lost the conference title to Rhode Island, wh0 they never even played.

Villanova is led by FCS All-American Ja’briel Mace, who leads the team in rushing and is also a star kick returner. We rarely mention an offensive lineman, but Wildcats left guard Temi Ajirotutu is playing in his 52nd career game with Villanova. Trust me, he’s on your NFL team’s draft board.

Illinois State was lucky just to get into the playoffs. They got smashed by Southern Illinois in the last week of the regular season 37-7.

But everything just lined up perfectly for them in the playoffs. There was a great line I read (I can’t take credit) that Illinois State has been South (they beat Southeastern Louisiana), then North (North Dakota State), then West (UC Davis), and now are heading East for the semis.

It’s the Redbirds’ fourth time in the semifinals. Wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz owns the school record with 38 TD catches, and his next catch will give him a school record 25.

Illinois State vs Villanova Pick

• Villanova +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
• Under 51.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

  

  

    

      
Darren Cooper
      

        Sports Betting Dime • 
        December 20, 2025 at 1:57pm
      
    
  
  

    

      
Pick
      
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HomePointSpread +2.5
        
Spread
        
CFB • Illinois State Redbirds @ Villanova Wildcats
      
      

        
-110 on Bet365
        
SCHEDULED • 12/21/2025 
      
    
  
  See all 1 picks
  
  
Betslip #1766239078316-2715-531

I am taking Villanova in my Illinois State vs Villanova pick, backing the Wildcats, who have the longest active home win streak in FCS at 23 straight. QB Pat McQuaide has thrown for 2,924 yards and 24 touchdowns, and I like the matchup for Villanova on the ground on what will be a cold, windy night in Philly.

Illinois State has forced 25 turnovers this season, and senior QB Tommy Rittenhouse has thrown for 3,006 yards and 34 touchdowns. He threw an incredible five picks against North Dakota State, and they still found a way to win.

I could see this Illinois State vs Villanova game ending on a field goal. Villanova kicker Jack Barnum has a strong leg, but has only made 15 out of 24 kicks this season.

Illinois State vs Villanova Line

The Illinois State vs Villanova line has the sportsbooks pretty set on Illinois State as 2.5-point favorites, with the total at FanDuel and Bet365 each at 51.5. Four of the last six Redbirds games have hit the over. Four of the last five Villanova games have gone under.

Illinois State has been underdogs the last two rounds of the playoffs. Villanova was 14-point underdogs last week against Tarleton State.

There’s some variety with the moneyline bets. Villanova is +125 at Bet365, and you can get Illinois State -128 at FanDuel.

Odds as of Saturday morning at consensus college football betting apps. Check out the best sportsbook promos for the FCS Playoffs.

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