Final Notre Dame vs Miami Predictions & Updated Odds (Sunday, Aug. 31)

• Two former powerhouses clash in Week 1 in a game with early College Football Playoff implications
• The Notre Dame/Miami total has plummeted from an opening number of 54.5 to 50.5, indicating sharp money is expecting a defensive battle
• See my favorite Notre Dame vs Miami picks and predictions, plus the closing odds

Two of college football’s most storied programs renew their rivalry in Week 1 as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-2 SU, 12-3-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U in 2024) travel to South Florida to take on the Miami Hurricanes (10-3 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 9-3-1 O/U in 2024) at Hard Rock Stadium at 7:30 pm ET on Sunday night. ABC will carry the broadcast.

Both teams harbor College Football Playoff aspirations, making this season-opener a critical tone-setter. The matchup features a fascinating quarterback duel between fifth-year senior Carson Beck, who transfered from Georgia to Miami in the offseason, and Notre Dame redshirt freshman CJ Carr, a four-star recruit out of Saline, MI.

This article will break down the odds, analyze key matchups, and provide my Notre Dame vs Miami prediction and picks.

Notre Dame vs Miami Odds

Sunday’s college football odds position Notre Dame as a slight road favorite, a nod to their defensive prowess and recent playoff experience. The moneyline gives the Fighting Irish a 58.7% implied win probability, and the Hurricanes 45.5%. After removing the vig, the true probabilities are Notre Dame 56.4% and Miami 43.6%.

Odds as of August 31 at DraftKings. Register at the top US betting sites to get a bonus for Notre Dame vs Miami.

The weather forecast calls for a hot and humid evening, with temperatures around 79 degrees, 85% humidity, and a light 5 mph wind, which could play a factor in the second half. The humid conditions in Miami Gardens could favor the home team’s conditioning and potentially suppress scoring, aligning with the significant line movement on the total.

From a betting perspective, Miami was just 6-6-1 against the spread last season but covered in four of its last five games as a home favorite. Notre Dame posted a sublime 12-3-1 ATS record, though the Irish are just 2-3 ATS as road favorites in non-conference games over the past three seasons.

These two historic programs have a storied rivalry, though they have met infrequently in recent years. Notre Dame won the last meeting during the 2023 season. However, the last time this game was played at Hard Rock Stadium, in 2017, the Hurricanes dominated with a decisive 41-8 victory. The home team has covered the spread in three of the last four matchups.

Fighting Irish vs Hurricanes Odds Movement

The most significant line movement in this matchup has been on the total, which opened as high as 54.5 and has been bet down a full four points to 50.5. This drastic shift indicates that sharp, professional money has heavily favored the under, anticipating that two strong defenses and potential early-season offensive rust will keep scoring in check. The humid Florida weather could also contribute, potentially slowing down the pace of play in the second half.

The spread has held relatively steady, opening with Notre Dame as a 2.5-point favorite. While the line hasn’t crossed the key number of three, the juice has shifted from a standard -110 to -118 on the Fighting Irish, suggesting some market confidence in the road favorite.

However, reports indicate that, while the overall NCAAF public betting splits back Notre Dame, there has been respected sharp action on Miami at +2.5 and +3 when it was briefly available. This classic public-vs-sharp divide makes the spread particularly intriguing.

The moneyline has seen a slight adjustment, with Notre Dame moving from -135 to -142. This aligns with the juice move on the spread but doesn’t signify a major shift in the perceived outcome.

Key Matchups in Miami vs Notre Dame

Running Game vs Run Defense

Notre Dame’s identity is built on a physical ground-and-pound attack that churned out 200.9 yards per game and 45 touchdowns last season, led by Jeremiyah Love. They will test a Miami run defense that was solid, allowing just 112.8 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. The battle in the trenches will be pivotal; if Notre Dame can establish the run, it will open up play-action for Carr and control the clock.

Miami’s rushing attack, featuring Mark Fletcher, was also effective, averaging 188.9 yards per game at an explosive 5.7 yards per carry. They face a stout Notre Dame run defense that permitted 138.1 yards per game. The Hurricanes will need to find success on the ground to maintain offensive balance and keep the Fighting Irish’s aggressive pass rush honest.

Offensive Line vs Pass Rush

Both teams feature strong units up front. Miami’s offensive line allowed just 23 sacks last season and posted a top-15 pass block win rate. They will be tested by a Notre Dame defensive front that consistently creates pressure and recorded 40 sacks in 2024. If Miami’s line can give Beck time, their receivers can exploit matchups downfield.

Notre Dame’s offensive line will be anchored by future NFL left tackle Anthonie Knapp and excels in run blocking. However, they struggled at times against elite pass-rushing teams last year. They face a Miami defensive line that gets after the quarterback with speed off the edge. Winning this battle is crucial for Notre Dame to sustain drives and protect Carr.

Notre Dame vs Miami Player Props

Player props as of August 31 at DraftKings.

Carson Beck’s passing yards prop of 239.5 is well below his 2024 average of 268.1 YPG, reflecting the market’s respect for Notre Dame’s elite pass defense. However, Miami’s offense is built on the vertical passing game, and they will likely take several deep shots. The under on his passing touchdowns at 1.5 (-128) is intriguing, as Notre Dame allowed only 14 passing TDs in 16 games last year.

For redshirt freshman CJ Carr, the line is set low at 186.5 yards. While Miami’s defense is tough, Notre Dame’s game plan will likely involve a healthy dose of short, high-percentage throws for the rookie, making the over a potential value play.

Jeremiyah Love’s rushing prop of 79.5 seems achievable given Notre Dame’s commitment to the run, even against a tough Miami front. He is also a heavy favorite to find the end zone at -240.

For Miami, Mark Fletcher’s line of 58.5 rushing yards presents value on the over, as the Hurricanes will need a balanced attack to succeed.

Joshisa Trader’s receiving line of 42.5 yards feels low for Miami’s top wideout; he has the speed to surpass that on a single reception. Jaden Greathouse’s receptions prop at 2.5 is a solid look on the over (+102), as he should serve as a reliable safety valve for Carr against pressure.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Miami (FL) Hurricanes Picks & Prediction

• Miami (FL) Hurricanes +2.5 (-102)
• Under 50.5 (-110)
• Jaden Greathouse Over 2.5 Receptions (+102)

This Week 1 clash is a classic battle of strength against strength, and the betting lines reflect a game that should come down to the wire. While Notre Dame boasts a championship pedigree and a suffocating defense, the situational factors heavily favor the Hurricanes. Playing at home in the oppressive late-August Florida humidity is a significant advantage against a team traveling from the Midwest. That environmental edge, combined with an explosive offense, and a massive edge in QB experience gives Miami a clear path to victory, or at least a cover.

The key to this game will be whether Miami’s offensive line can protect Carson Beck – a top-ten favorite in the Heisman odds – against Notre Dame’s aggressive pass rush. Last season, Miami’s front was one of the best in the nation, and if they can provide Beck with a clean pocket, his talented receivers will create matchup problems for a Notre Dame secondary that is replacing key pieces.

The Notre Dame offense is methodical but lacks the explosive element of Miami’s. In his first collegiate game, Carr will face a relentless Miami pass rush that can force him into rookie mistakes.

The massive line movement on the total toward the Under is telling, but Miami’s offense is capable of scoring in bunches, making the spread a more attractive play. The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a short home underdog, a trend that holds weight in a matchup this close.

I’m backing the home team to leverage their offensive firepower, and the climate to keep this inside the number.

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