Four-Team Playoff Odds Strongly Favor Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Ohio State Getting In

• The 4-Team Playoff odds strongly favor Clemson (-370), Alabama (-250), Ohio State (-250), and LSU (-200) to make it in.
• Oklahoma is now at +250 after the loss at Kansas State
• Penn State is undefeated and currently at +400, with a showdown at Ohio State looming

After chaos struck with Oklahoma’s loss at Kansas State, the 4-Team CFP odds now strongly favor Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, and LSU.

Has the field been cemented, or is there value in a long shot breaking into the playoff race?

Odds to Make 4-Team Playoff

Odds taken October 28th

With Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas State, the odds have centered on those top four teams. The season isn’t over by any stretch however, and there’s still value on the outside.

Is Oklahoma Officially Out?

Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas State has put them on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff, but are they as far away as many in the college football world have declared?

Absolutely not.

The path for the Sooners is now tougher, but one has to be extremely ignorant of recent history to think the Sooners playoff hopes are dead.

In 2017, Clemson went on the road and lost to a Syracuse team that finished 4-8. In 2016, in an even more inexplicable loss, the Tigers hosted, and were defeated by, Pittsburgh. Despite those losses, the Tigers made it into the playoff.

In 2015, Michigan State was defeated on the road at Nebraska. The Spartans went on to make the field. During the inaugural playoff season, Oregon made it into the playoff, despite a loss to Arizona.

Jalen Hurts: Cool as ❄️ pic.twitter.com/tzdEeQkrFn

— ESPN (@espn) October 26, 2019

The Playoff committee has made it very clear that every team is allowed a mulligan.

Obviously, the Sooners need chaos in the form of losses from teams ahead of them. It’s not a guarantee that it happens, but in a sport played by 18-22 year olds, unpredictability is a major factor. If Clemson was capable of losing to Pitt, despite the game being a mismatch on paper, then who’s to say that something like that can’t happen again this year?

Remaining for the Tigers are a road trip to NC State, a home date with #23 Wake Forest, and a trip to the same South Carolina team that recently beat Georgia and scared Florida (but also lost by three scores to Tennessee). In that stretch, chaos is entirely possible. Alabama has #1 LSU, #11 Auburn, and a possible SEC Championship to get through. Once again, that stretch has chaos potential. Ohio State has Penn State, Michigan, and a potential Big 10 title game.

In a sport where the wackiness and unpredictability is such a big part of the appeal, anyone already writing off Oklahoma is being extremely short-sighted.

Is Any Other Team Worth Betting?

The other team on the outside looking in that has a shot is #5 Penn State. There are a couple land mines left on the schedule, but they’ve proven to be a team that can withstand those.

Earlier in the year, they went to Kinnick Stadium and beat #12 Iowa, and this version of the Hawkeyes is far superior to the one that hung 55 on Ohio State 2 seasons ago. Seven days later, the Nittany Lions hosted, and defeated, #16 Michigan.

Sean Clifford and KJ Hamler have had a solid connection all season and Penn State remained unbeaten in week 8!

(Via @ESPNCFB)pic.twitter.com/Lvptv7BUKV

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 21, 2019

They have a tricky game at undefeated #13 Minnesota this week, but if they can get past that, it comes down to the November 23rd showdown with Ohio State. The Buckeyes will be underdogs in the game, and going to Columbus makes it even tougher.

However, with playoff odds at +400, there is certainly value in banking on the Nittany Lions pulling the upset, which would shoot them directly into the top four.