LSU’s 2020 Win Total Bet Up to 9.5 Despite Tough Slate and Untested QB

• The LSU Tigers’ 2020 win total has been bet up to 9.5 despite a tough strength-of-schedule
• Can the Tigers contend for another national championship despite turning over more than half their roster?
• Here are three reasons why on side of LSU’s OVER/UNDER is a must-bet proposition

Public money is siding with the defending national champions despite a mountain of evidence that suggests they could be in for trouble this season. The 2020 LSU Tigers are losing Joe Burrow, K’Lavon Chaisson, Justin Jefferson, Patrick Queen, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire  — all first-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft — yet confidence remains high in Baton Rouge.

2020 SEC Win Totals

Odds as of June 12th.

Looking at the 2020 college football win totals, you’ll notice everyone in the SEC seems a little higher than you might expect. That’s not only because the conference is the strongest in the country (something SECers will tell you any chance they get) but also because of the cupcake non-conference scheduling they all seem to love so dearly.

Even with dates against UTSA, Rice, and Nicholls State on the schedule, I find it hard to believe LSU will reach double-digit wins this season. I’m on the UNDER here for two key reasons.

Roster Turnover A Big Issue For LSU

According to ESPN, LSU ranks 127th out of the 130 FBS teams in returning production at only 42%, including only 30% on offense which ranks dead-last in the Power 5. LSU’s roster turnover isn’t just a quantity issue, it’s quality as well. The team set an NFL-record with five first-round draft picks including the number-one overall selection, Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Burrow.

🚨 IT'S REAL 🚨

Welcome Home, @Joe_Burrow10#SeizeTheDEY | @Bose pic.twitter.com/qnauCnpOWI

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) April 24, 2020

While Burrow was clearly the best quarterback in college football, his replacement Myles Brennan comes with question marks. The Sporting News recently ranked college quarterbacks and he landed at number 24 on the list.

That’s not to say Brennan doesn’t have talent, but he won’t be putting up Burrow-like numbers this year. With replacements also needed at running back, wide receiver, and several spots on defense, it looks like too much to overcome.

Schedule Provides Many Obstacles

LSU has the three cupcakes I mentioned earlier plus a few automatic wins in the conference, but this isn’t about finding the wins as much as it is circling the likely losses. With a young team and an unproven quarterback, I don’t love the Tigers chances against any of Texas, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, or Texas A&M.

Wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. are on the @WalterCampFF Preseason All-America First Team!

🔗 https://t.co/YyCsiROhiS pic.twitter.com/arun9c75NJ

— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) June 11, 2020

Ed Orgeron has proven he can coach at the highest level but his success came with a roster loaded with NFL talent … first-round NFL talent. He will have elite wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase at his disposal, but with a green quarterback and new players up and down the roster, this coaching job will be much different.

I’d bet the Tigers to go under the number here and I’m fairly convinced they don’t come close. I could see them adding an extra, unexpected loss to go with L’s against the big boys on their schedule.

PICK: LSU TIGERS UNDER 9.5 WINS (-175)