LSU vs Houston Prediction, Line & Opt-Out Updates for Texas Bowl

• The Houston Cougars are 1.5-point favorites as they battle the LSU Tigets in the Texas Bowl
• LSU’s roster will look significantly different after numerous key opt outs
• See my LSU vs Houston prediction and Hawaii Bowl spread below

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The Houston Cougars (9-3) will try to finish their season with double-digit wins for the first time since 2021, when they take on the LSU Tigers (7-5).

The Tigers are wrapping up a nightmare season, which included the mid-season firing of head coach Brian Kelly and the hiring of Lane Kiffin. He won’t be coaching this edition of the Tigers — that’s been left to interim coach Frank Wilson, who’s also just taking on the mop-up work as he heads to Ole Miss.

Despite all that — and a bevy of key opt-outs we’ll get to below — LSU is still only a slight underdog in the college football odds. That dysfunction is why I like Houston as a big winner here in my Tigers vs Cougars prediction.

Action gets underway Saturday night at 9:15pm ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX, home of the NFL’s Texans. ESPN will carry the broadcast coverage.

LSU vs Houston Prediction

It probably wasn’t the end of year finish the Houston Cougars wanted, as the finished 2-2 in their final four games, culminating with a 31-24 win over Baylor to get to nine wins.

The good news is Houston was in both games, despite the disappointing results, falling by 10 to West Virginia and dropping a 17-14 decision to TCU. They’ve only suffered one blowout loss, a 35-11 defeat to Texas Tech back on October 4.

Offensively, they averaged 28.9 points per game, and rolled up 390.9 yards of offense per game. the Cougars’ bread-and-butter is the run game, as they churn out 175.7 yards per game, while passing for 215.3 yards per contest, both Top 10 figures inside the Big 12.

Some solid QB play for Conner Weigman would be a huge help. After throwing just two picks through the first eight games, the junior was picked off seven times in the final four games, intercepted at least once in each game.

LSU would have been a monster test for Weigman, but the scavengers have picked apart the LSU corpse, so one of the top defenses in the SEC and in college football (we’ll get to the opt outs below) won’t be anything near the squad that allowed just 18.3 points per game.

The Tigers’ year really came undone when they ran into the meaty part of their SEC schedule, and a perfect 4-0 start went off the rails fast.

LSU dropped four of their next five, all to ranked teams, starting with a 24-19 defeat to Ole Miss (13th at the time), 31-24 to then-17th Vanderbilt, then getting thumped 49-25 to third-ranked Texas A&M.

Kelly was ousted at that point, and for good measure, LSU got thumped by and then fourth-ranked Alabama 20-9. The Tigers ended the year with a 17-13 loss to no. 8 Oklahoma, finishing the year 1-5 against ranked teams.

The Tigers’ offense isn’t exactly humming, as it’s a distant 112th in the nation in total offense, at 332.7 yards per game. There’s not much of a run game, as they put up 106.2 yards per game, good for 123rd in college football.

The passing game is passage at 226.4 yards (68th), but even that number hasn’t been reached the last three games by QB Michael Van Buren Jr, filling in for the injured Garrett Nussmeier.

Van Buren Jr is coming off his worst statistical game of the year, throwing for just 96 yards with a TD and interception against the Sooners.

LSU vs Houston: Key Offensive Stats

I just don’t see how LSU is going to be able to move the ball and score points against the Cougars, who will be almost fully intact for this matchup.

The Tigers have scored 13 points or less in three of their last four games, while Houston has put up at least 30 points in three of the last four.

Yes, LSU has had the far tougher schedule, but after the year they’ve had, players, coaches and fans alike would probably just like to see this season over.

LSU vs Houston Texas Bowl Spread

The interactive table above will automatically update as the college football odds move over the course of the day.

The books are definitely showing great respect for the SEC, as the Tigers are as about as close to a pick’em as you can get, and feel like underdog only by name. Caesars has them as -105 ‘dogs on the moneyline to just -110 for the Cougars over at bet365.

The spread is even more quirky, as you can still find both teams as +1.5 underdogs against the spread — FanDuel for LSU, DraftKings for Houston.

Targeting the Over? bet365 has the total at a generous 41.5 points, while Under bettors can grab themselves a full extra point at BetMGM.

Odds as of Dec. 27 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

As for the college football public betting trends, the public most significant bet is for LSU to win straight up, with 78% of the money on just 45% of the bets. Next is the Tigers at +1.5, getting 65% of the bets and 60% of the money.

The public is split on the total, with 61% of the bets taking the Under, though 53% of the money is getting dropped on the Over.

LSU vs Houston Opt Outs

The college football opt outs tracker is almost exclusively LSU here, and it’s a who’s who of notable players, particularly on the defensive side.

Confirmed out of the Texas Bowl is cornerback Mansoor Delane, who is a consensus All-American at the cornerback position, and almost assured to be a Round 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Mansoor Delane’s lone season at LSU was SPECIAL🐯🔒 pic.twitter.com/ngd7VqXQzb

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 24, 2025

Stud linebackers Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins have both opted out for NFL Draft prep, while D-lineman Ahmad Breaux is into the transfer portal.

We also know Van Buren Jr is getting a fourth straight start, because regular starting QB Garrett Nussmeier, though healthy, has chosen to sit this one out. Also preparing for the NFL draft is starting wide receiver Aaron Anderson.

For Houston, only offensive lineman Demetrius Hunter has opted out.