LSU vs Purdue Citrus Bowl Odds, Spread and Prediction

• LSU and Purdue meet for the first time in the Citrus Bowl on Monday, January 2
• LSU is a 14.5-point favorite over the Boilermakers at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida
• Read below for LSU vs Purdue odds, analysis and prediction

No. 17 LSU (9-4) is a 14.5-point favorite over Purdue in the Citrus Bowl at 1 pm ET Monday on ABC in Orlando, Florida. The Tigers have lost their last two games, the most recent being a 50-30 defeat to Georgia in the SEC championship game.

Purdue (8-5) will play without five starters, including quarterback Aidan O’Connell and wide receiver Charlie Jones, one of the top passing combinations in the FBS. The teams are meeting for the first time.

Let’s dive into the LSU vs Purdue odds and find the best bet for Monday’s Citrus Bowl.

LSU vs Purdue Odds

Odds from FanDuel on January 1st. Get the FanDuel promo code for LSU vs Purdue. 

LSU is a 14.5-point favorite over Purdue in the first meeting of the two programs. LSU is 7-6 ATS, 1-3 in its last four games. The Tigers are 3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite, failing to cover in a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M as a 10-point favorite the week before the SEC title game. The over is 7-6 in the Tigers’ games.

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Purdue is 5-8 ATS. The total has gone over in eight of the Boilermakers’ 13 games but in only two of the last five. Double-digit underdogs have a plus-9.3 return on investment against the line and a plus-25.7 return on the moneyline in the last 17 years.

LSU’s Daniels Expected to Play

Quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has announced he will return in 2023,  is expected to start after suffering an ankle injury in the Texas A&M loss Nov. 26 and re-aggravating it in the SEC title game. It would be a big add. Daniels has passed for 2,774 yards and 16 touchdowns and rushed for 818 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first season after transferring from Arizona State.

Daniels had 277 passing/rushing yards and three touchdowns in the Tigers’ signature victory, a 32-31 overtime win over Alabama on Nov. 5 in which he scored on a 25-yard run in overtime and followed with a two-point conversion pass to end it.

Jayden Daniels will be returning to LSU for his senior year 🔥🔥

pic.twitter.com/ytPHtBKb5s

— Boot Krewe Media (@BootKreweMedia) December 22, 2022

A host of other Tigers, including receiver Kayshon Boutte, will not play, however. Boutte (48 receptions, 538 yards) reversed field and declared for the NFL Draft on Dec. 28 after announcing he would return to school. Wide receiver Jaray Jenkins also declared for the NFL Draft, but top target Malik Nabers (63 catches, 854 yards) will play.

Defensive linemen B.J. Ojulari, Ali Gaye and Jaquelin Roy opted out, leaving the Tigers with one starter up front. Starting cornerbacks Jay Ward and Mekhi Garner also opted out from a defense that is giving up an average of 362 yards per game, 50th in the FBS in total defense.

With its full complement, LSU averaged 443 yards total offense and 32.3 points per game, ranked in the top 40 among FBS teams in both.

Purdue Missing Some Stars

Not only will the Boilermakers be without quarterback O’Connell and wide receiver Jones, they also will be missing head coach Jeff Brohm, who took the same position at his alma mater Louisville on Dec. 8. Jeff’s younger brother Brian, the Boilermakers’ offensive coordinator, will coach the Citrus Bowl.

Sixth-year quarterback Austin Burton is to replace O’Connell, who declared for the NFL draft after passing for 3,490 yards and 22 touchdowns this season. Burton started once this season, a 28-26 victory over Florida Atlantic.

Purdue QB Austin Burton tonight:

21/29
166 yds
3 TD
W

Have a night, AB🎯 @austinburton_12 #BoilerUp pic.twitter.com/VdgX5hZObz

— DUGGAN 🎙 (@SidelineDuggs) September 25, 2022

Jones led the FBS with 110 receptions and had 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns and is one of four offensive starters who opted out, including tight end Payne Durham and guard Holstege. Durham was the second-favorite target, with 56 receptions and eight touchdowns.

Cornerback Cory Trice also opted out, depleting a defense that allowed only 350 yards a game, 39th in the FBS.

LSU vs Purdue Prediction

LSU will have the best player on the field, quarterback Jayden Daniels, assuming he has recovered from an ankle injury that affected him in the SEC title game loss to Georgia. Multiple opt-outs appear to hurt Purdue more — quarterback Aidan O’Connell and friend/wide receiver Charlie Jones were the most dynamic pass-catching tandem in the FBS.

Both teams can play defense, and with that, the Boilermakers will be able to make a game of it. Take the large points.

• Pick: Purdue +14.5 (-110)
• Season: 49-49 ATS