Navy vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Picks for Liberty Bowl

• Navy battles Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl on Friday, January 2nd
• Navy is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games
• Check out my Navy vs Cincinnati prediction, with odds & picks for the Liberty Bowl

The Navy Midshipmen meet the Cincinnati Bearcats in a Liberty Bowl showdown. Navy has won three straight heading into this one, while Cincinnati has dropped four straight games. Get your bets in before all of the action kicks off from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on ESPN at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Dive into my Navy vs Cincinnati prediction with all the odds & picks for the Liberty Bowl.

Navy vs Cincinnati Prediction

My Navy vs Cincinnati prediction is for the Midshipmen to win and cover the spread in the Liberty Bowl.

Cincinnati will trot out a far different squad on Friday than the team that took the field for most of the season. At least a dozen Bearcats have opted out of the Liberty Bowl, with huge names like quarterback Brendan Sorsby already in the transfer portal. Sorsby accounted for 36 total touchdowns this season and, as the No. 1-ranked quarterback in the portal, will be dearly missed by Cincinnati.

The Bearcats will turn to Brady Lichtenberg, who has thrown for just 333 yards and three touchdowns over his four seasons in a reserve role. Redshirt freshman Samaj Jones is also expected to see action at quarterback.

Past that, the Bearcats’ defense has been devastated by opt outs, with All-Big 12 linebacker Jake Golday, stellar defensive tackle Dontay Corleone and four of five secondary starters sitting this one out. Additionally, running back Tawee Walker and right tackle Ethan Green won’t participate in the Liberty Bowl. Meanwhile, Navy doesn’t participate in the transfer portal and has no notable opt outs for this one.

All of those absences leave an already vulnerable Bearcats defense without its best players. Cincinnati finished the season 104th in defensive EPA per play allowed and 111th in defensive success rate, so stopping offenses was already tough enough. During their four-game losing streak, Cincinnati allowed 36.5 points per game and nearly 473 yards per game. Most concerning: they gave up 237.8 rushing yards per game during that skid.

Containing Navy’s devastating rushing attack without their best front seven players will be disastrous. Expect Navy to win big.

Navy vs Cincinnati Picks

• Pick: Navy -7.5

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Service academies have dominated bowl games of late. Over the last four seasons, Army, Air Force and Navy have won seven straight bowls while facing power conference teams in four of those matchups. I like that trend to continue in the Liberty Bowl.

Navy’s devastating power read rushing attack is set to control this matchup. The Midshipmen lead the nation in rushing yards per game at 289.3 yards on 5.6 yards per carry. They finished the year third in EPA per rush, as dual-threat quarterback Blake Horvath led the way with 1,147 yards and 15 touchdowns. Running back Alex Tecza added 822 yards and nine touchdowns and rounds out a physical Navy ground attack.

Horvath is the trigger man in an offense that has propelled the Midshipmen to consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in program history. Despite missing two games to injury, Horvath finished with 2,619 total yards and 25 touchdowns. Navy has gone 20-5 combined over his last two seasons as starter.

The Midshipmen defeated Memphis 28-17 in this stadium on Thanksgiving and will think of this neutral site like home. This is Navy’s second trip to Memphis in the past five weeks, giving them a distinct familiarity advantage. On top of that, the seniors will be motivated to win, as Navy can match its program record of 11 wins with a victory.

Navy also features the school’s all-time leader in receiving yards, Eli Heidenreich, a dual threat who averages 19.1 yards per reception and 6.5 yards per carry. In their last five games, Navy averaged 274 rushing yards per game at 5.6 yards per carry.

Without their star quarterback and all their best defensive players, the Cincinnati Bearcats will be a fish out of water on Friday. Bet on the stability of the Midshipmen and their power rushing attack to lead Navy to a double-digit victory in the Liberty Bowl.

Navy vs Cincinnati Odds

The Navy vs Cincinnati odds have the Midshipmen as 7.5-point favorites in the Liberty Bowl. The total sits at 56.5, with the over and under both priced at -110.

It’s significant that a service academy is a touchdown favorite over a Power conference team. The line moved substantially after Sorsby entered the portal, reflecting how significantly oddsmakers downgraded Cincinnati after the quarterback transfer and defensive opt outs.

Bettors are all over the Midshipmen in this matchup, as 83% of moneyline wagers are on Navy in the college football public betting splits.

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Odds as of January 1st at FanDuel. Look for the best college football betting apps for Navy vs Cincinnati.