Northwestern vs USC Prediction, Pick & Spread (Friday, Nov. 7)

• The 19th-ranked USC Trojans are 14.5-point favorites over the Northwestern Wildcats
• The Trojans are seeking back-to-back wins for the first time since Week 3 and 4
• See below for my Northwestern vs USC prediction, picks and line

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In the thick of battle for both a Big Ten title and a berth in the College Football Playoff, the 19th-ranked USC Trojans (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) host the Northwestern Wildcats (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) on Friday night.

The Trojans, who have been unable to string together back-to back wins since Week 3 and 4, are a massive betting favorite in the college football odds.

However, the books might be undervaluing a tough Northwestern defense, as you’ll read in my Northwestern vs USC betting prediction below.

Kickoff is scheduled for Friday night at 9pm ET from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, with FOX carrying the broadcast.

Northwestern vs USC Prediction

USC brings a powerhouse offense to the table for this Big Ten battle, as they roll up more than 500 yards of offense per game, the sixth-best figure in college football.

There’s plenty of ways the Trojans can pick teams apart en route to their 39.8 points per game. Their passing attack, behind QB Jayden Maiava averages 302.2 yards per game.

But they’re also shredding on the ground to the tune of 203.6 yards per contest. USC’s 7.6 yards per play is the best mark in all of college football.

Lately though, those gaudy numbers have somewhat neutralized. The Trojans were held to their lowest scoring output of the season two weeks ago in a 34-24 loss to Notre Dame, and followed that up with a 21-17 grindout win over Nebraska.

Northwestern isn’t exactly the get-right team for the offense, either. The Wildcats have allowed just 16.8 points per game, which ranks sixth in the Big Ten.

Since dropping two of its first three of the season, the Wildcats had ripped off four in a row, and held UCLA, UL Monroe, Penn State and Purdue to an average of just 10.5 points per game. That streak just ended with a 28-21 loss to Nebraska.

Northwestern has only played one other ranked team this season, and were crushed 34-14 by the Oregon Ducks (then no. 4). The defense wasn’t awful, allowing 197 passing yards and for 176 yards rush yards.

On the year, they allow 139 yards on the ground (56th) and just 165.1 yards passing per game, which is inside college football’s Top 15.

The path to keeping this one respectable is to rely on a running game that piles up 187.9 yards per game, a Top-5 mark in the Big Ten, and keep USC’s potent offense on the sidelines.

Northwestern vs USC Pick

• Pick: Northwestern +14.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Based on my Northwestern vs USC prediction, my pick and best bet for is to back the underdog Wildcats and take those two touchdowns cushion.

Northwestern has been playing good football, and even if they average just 22.5 points per game, they have a defense and potential ball-control offense that can chew up time and make this closer than it should be.

Northwestern vs USC: Key Offensive Stats

USC is just 2-4-0 against the spread in their last six games, and have failed to cover a pair of large double-digit spreads: 20.5 points at Purdue and 19 points at home to Michigan State.

Contrast that to the Wildcats, who are currently on a 3-0-1 ATS run in their last four, scoring more than 22 points just once, and relying on a stout defense to hold up its end of the bargain.

Northwestern vs USC Spread

The interactive table above will automatically update as the college football odds move over the course of the day.

This line has gone as wide as 16.5 points, but has moved into the 14-point range. Part of that might have to do with USC’s running back situation, with Eli Sanders (knee) out for the year, and Waymond Jordan (ankle) doubtful.

Both were out last game, but King Miller shouldered the load, rushing for 129 yards on 18 carries.

There’s not much value on USC on the moneyline, and though Northwestern is my pick to cover, there’s little chance that +490 moneyline bet will come to fruition.

The total has variance, depending on what you’re looking for. Sites have the number at 50.5 points if you want the Under, but you can still get a line of 49.5 points if you are targeting the Over.