Oregon’s Odds to Make CFP (+360) Almost Twice as Good as Utah (+700); Which Pac-12 Power Is Better Value?

• The Oregon Ducks have +360 odds to reach the College Football Playoff
• Pac-12 rivals the Utah Utes are listed at odds of +700
• Both have one loss and are on a collision course for the Pac-12 title game

The Oregon Ducks (8-1, 6-0 Pac-12) have a history with the College Football Playoff. It was brief and ultimately unsuccessful, but it’s a history nonetheless. The Utah Utes (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) can’t make the same claim, never finishing with fewer than three losses in the CFP era and never so much as sniffing a playoff berth.

Could the Utes make their first playoff appearance this year? Oregon and Utah were positioned 7th and 8th, respectively, in the first set of CFP rankings released yesterday, but oddsmakers say that only the Ducks have a reasonable chance to qualify for the four-team field.

Oregon is at +360 in the Four-Team CFP Playoff odds. Utah is a distant +700.

Odds To Make 2020 College Football Playoff

Odds taken on November 6, 2019.

The current odds give Oregon a better chance than even unbeaten Penn State.

On Outside Looking In

Five of the six teams ahead of Oregon and Utah – Ohio State (8-0), LSU (8-0), Alabama (8-0), Penn State (8-0) and Clemson (9-0) – are unbeaten.

🚨 The first CFP rankings are out! 🚨

Do you agree with the committee? pic.twitter.com/2LK7pY8kl5

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 6, 2019

Two of the teams behind them – 12th-ranked Baylor (8-0) and 17th-ranked Minnesota (8-0) have also yet to taste defeat.

No two-loss team has ever made the playoff, so in order to qualify, Oregon and Utah will have to win out and hope that at least four or five of those undefeated teams suffer losses.

Oregon Ducking Contenders

It’s been some time since the Ducks and national championship were uttered in the same sentence. It’s the first time Oregon has found itself in this conversation since quarterback Marcus Mariota led them to the 2014 title game, the inaugural year of the CFP, before falling 42-20 to Ohio State.

The Ducks opened the season by dropping a 27-21 decision to the #12 Auburn Tigers. Since then, Oregon has rattled off eight successive victories. It’s the first time that the Ducks have assembled an eight-game win streak since that 2014 squad.

They crushed USC 56-24 in their last game but the biggest obstacle facing Oregon’s CFP hopes could be strength of schedule. The Ducks’ loss to Auburn was their only meeting with a (current) top-25 team all season long. Auburn has since lost to both Florida and LSU.

Oregon’s non-conference wins over Nevada and Montana aren’t going to impress anyone.

Best Ever Utah

When the Utes came out at #8 in the first CFP rankings, it was a historic moment for the school. That’s the highest a Utah football team has ever been positioned nationally.

On the other hand, the Utes lost 30-23 to the same (mediocre) 5-4 USC Trojans who were just eviscerated by Oregon. And Utah hasn’t faced a single top-25 team all season long, based on the latest polls.

Utah’s previous high-water mark was #10 in the 2015 CFP rankings. The Utes were also 8-1 at that point. That week, they went out and lost to 37-30 to Arizona.

Pac-12 Ain’t What It Used To Be

The good news for the Pac-12 is that two of its teams are rated among the top eight in college football. That’s a big step up for this once-mighty conference. Washington in 2016 was the last Pac-12 team to get to the CFP. USC in 2004 was the last Pac-12 team to win a national title.

CFP Rankings to watch tonight:

Oregon/Utah — will Pac-12 box-out Big 12?

Alabama — ranking could make LSU game a must-win.

Penn State – rewarded for quality wins?

Florida: 2 good losses and 2 FCS opponents.

Irrelevant ranking: Clemson. Win and they're in.

— Matt Schick (@ESPN_Schick) November 5, 2019

The placement of Oregon and Utah in the top eight is a sign that the Pac-12 is gaining legitimacy. But it’s still light years behind the SEC and Big Ten.

There are too many teams between the Ducks and Utes to seriously believe either of them can gain a top-four placing. And neither of them plays an opponent of note over the remainder of the season, until they (likely) play each other in the conference-title game.

It’s likely that Clemson and Ohio State finish undefeated. It’s also likely that a one-loss Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, Georgia, and even possibly Penn State qualify ahead of a one-loss Oregon/Utah. The Pac-12’s CFP contenders need to be perfect and hope for chaos, which is a bridge too far, even with Utah’s odds at an enticing +700.