Penn State’s National Championship Odds Improve to +2000 After 28-21 Win Over Michigan

• Currently unbeaten Penn State see odds shorten to +2000 after win over No. 16 Michigan
• After nearly blowing a 21-point lead, PSU managed to hold on
• A weak non-conference schedule won’t help their CFP resume; beating Ohio State crucial for the Nittany Lions
  

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Looking back on the opening National Championship odds, Penn State was a virtual afterthought. On Aug. 21, the Nittany Lions were a +8300 underdog to reach the title game, but following yesterday’s game, things have certainly changed.

Remaining unbeaten with a 28-21 win over No. 16 Michigan, PSU now find themselves in the thick of a title race, with odds recently shortened to +2000.

* Odds taken 10/20/19

Penn State still has five games to go,  plus a potential conference championship game. While they’ve done everything right to this point, but that still might not be enough.

Non-Conference Is A Non-Factor

At season’s end, when the College Football Playoff committee reviews each team’s resume, Penn State won’t have much to brag about from its non-conference slate. Its three non-Big Ten opponents were Idaho (an FCS school, currently 3-5), Buffalo (from the MAC, currently 3-4) and Pittsburgh (from the ACC, currently 5-2).

INCOMPLETE!

The 100th Penn State-Pitt matchup ends in a victory for the Nittany Lions! James Franklin's team improves to 3-0 this season. pic.twitter.com/7N0r59QYuN

— Onward State (@OnwardState) September 14, 2019

Beating Pitt will look good for Penn State, but good enough? It’s still not a flashy enough win and is against a school currently on track to miss its conference championship game. Some teams ahead of Penn State have faced tougher non-conference foes, such as LSU (defeated Texas, ranked ninth at the time) and Georgia (defeated Notre Dame, ranked seventh at the time).

Potential Winner-Take-All With Ohio State Looms

Only four teams make the CFP, yet there are five “Power 5” conferences. With that math, one conference champion is left out each year. But it gets even more complicated than that.

Thanks to the conference and bowl representatives who joined us for our final mock rankings exercise of the year.

One month from today, the #CFBPlayoff Selection Committee will convene for its first rankings of the 2019 season. 🏈🏆

Who’s in? 👀 pic.twitter.com/PJtiJyvecc

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) October 5, 2019

Last year, Notre Dame got in as an independent. The year before that, two SEC teams (Alabama and Georgia) got in. In both instances, the Big Ten was shut out altogether.

That won’t likely be the case this time around, as Penn State and Ohio State are on a crash course to face each other on Nov. 23. Assuming both remain unbeaten (and they’re currently favored to do so), that game could present a sort of winner-take-all scenario.

My latest CFP rankings after Week 8:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State

And yours?

— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) October 20, 2019

That game figures to be the ultimate road test for the Nittany Lions. Ohio State currently ranks No. 1 in ESPN’s team efficiency (98.0/100) and has won all seven of its games by 24 or more points. The Buckeyes have won six of the past seven matchups, including a 27-26 win last year.

Highlights from Ohio State's 27-26 win over Penn State! #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/TruAZvUbj2

— Buckeye Videos+ (@BuckeyeVideos) September 30, 2018

Decision Time

The odds are still quite attractive for Penn State, but the remaining schedule is ugly. Next up is Michigan State, a team Penn State hasn’t beaten on the road since 2009. After that is Minnesota, which Penn State required overtime to beat last year.

And of course, the daunting Ohio State game is on the way about a month from now. The Buckeyes have looked as unbeatable as anyone in college football and should be respected as such. Only one Big Ten team (if that) figures to make the CFP, and it’s probably not going to be Penn State.