SMU vs UCF Odds, Preview and Picks

• UCF is a 2.5-point home favorite against SMU on Wednesday
• SMU blew out the Knights 55-27 last season
• Read below for SMU vs UCF odds, line and prediction

UCF (3-1) is a 2.5-point home favorite against SMU in the American Athletic Conference game opener for both at 7 pm ET Wednesday in Orlando. The game, originally scheduled for Saturday, was pushed back due to Hurricane Ian.

SMU (2-2) has lost two in a row, to Power 5 opponents Maryland and TCU by a combined 15 points. The Mustangs had no trouble with Central Florida in Dallas a year ago, winning 55-27. SMU opened as a 3.5 underdog.

SMU vs UCF Odds

Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Oct 4. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code. 

UCF is favored by 2.5 points over SMU, and past performance leans heavily in the Knights’ favor. SMU is 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five in Orlando, and 1-5 SU in its last six against the Knights.  SMU is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall and in its last six on the road. The Mustangs are 1-4 SU in their last five road games.

Central Florida is 9-1 SU in its last 10 at home and 6-1 SU in its last seven. Trends also favor the under. Central Florida has been under the total in five of its last six overall and six of its last eight at home. The total has gone under in five of SMU’s last six on the road.

Plumlee a Good Fit at CFU

Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee, who joined the program after quarterback Dillon Gabriel left for Oklahoma, has been an ideal fit in coach Gus Malzahn’s hybrid offense. Plumlee, definitely a run-first guy, leads the team with 404 yards rushing while passing for 827 with five touchdowns and three interceptions.

Behind Plumlee and veterans on both lines, the Knights have moved up to become the second favorite in the AAC Conference Title odds.

TG10 is 1 of 14 players in the FBS to do it this season. There are some really talented dudes in this group:

• Malik Cunningham (3x)
• John Rhys Plumlee (2x)
• Hendon Hooker
• Jaxon Dart
• Jayden Daniels
• Adrian Martinez
• Jalon Daniels
• KJ Jefferson
• Bryce Young https://t.co/xzfIotoMnm

— Jay Tust (@KTVBSportsGuy) September 28, 2022

Central Florida is third in NCAA Division I in rushing offense with an average of 275.8 yards per game. The Knights had 284 yards rushing in a 27-10 victory over Georgia Tech the last time out, Sept. 24,. when rushed for Plumlee 100 and passed for only 49. Running backs Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson each have over 200 yards rushing.

The Knights’ only loss was 20-14 at Louisville, which scored the only 13 points of the second half. Plumlee was intercepted on fourth-and-goal from the Cardinals’ 5-yard line with 2:40 left, and Central was penalized 11 times for 111 yards.

UCF is giving up 313 yards per game, inside the Division I top 30, and leads the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have three touchdowns and three field goals in 15 trips inside the 20.

SMU Looks to Rebound

The Mustangs stepped up in class against Power 5 opponents the last two weeks and fell as small underdogs to Maryland and TCU, the latter a 42-34 home loss to former coach Sonny Dykes the last time out Sept. 24.

🧵 #CollegeFootball leaders through Week 5, starting with per game passing yards:

1. Michael Penix Jr, 346.6 YPG
2. Tanner Mordecai, 346.3 YPG
3. Frank Harris, 344.8 YPG 📸
4. Will Rogers, 343.0 YPG
5. Austin Reed, 332.6 YPG pic.twitter.com/vXuEPweQNx

— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) October 3, 2022

Quarterback Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 1,385 yards, on pace to surpass his total of 3,628 yards in 2021, but his efficiency has dropped since Dykes’ departure. Mordecai has 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, paces that are on the wrong side of both numbers from his breakout 2021.

The Mustangs are giving up 400 yards per game, 180.5 yards on the ground. They have a minus-3 turnover margin, in large part because of Mordecai’s five picks. A third consecutive loss would jeopardize their chance to reach their expected finish in the conference win totals.

SMU vs UCF Prediction

The contrast of styles here could hardly be greater — SMU will throw the ball from the spread formation and UCF will run it from different angles. The Knights bring a more well-rounded team and a large reservoir of revenge into this one. Plumlee is hardly the most accurate passer in the league, but he will not need to be here. UCF will control the line of scrimmage and continue its home mastery of the Mustangs. The Knights even gained a point when the public went the other way.

The pick: UCF -2.5 (-113)