Texas vs Florida Spread, Prediction & Early Picks for Week 6 CFB

• The Texas Longhorns are 6.5-point road favorites over the Florida Gators in Week 6 College Football action
• Texas is the last team in the SEC to open its conference slate
• Read below for early Texas vs Florida betting line, preview, prediction and pick

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The ninth-ranked Texas Longhorns (3-1, 1-3-0 ATS) finally open their SEC slate when they travel to the Swamp to battle the Florida Gators (1-3, 1-3-0 ATS) in Week 6 College Football action.

The college football odds are siding with the visitor, though there are some interesting questions that need to be asked (we’ll get to that below).

Action gets underway Saturday, October 4 at 3:30 pm ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL, with ESPN carrying the broadcast.

See below for the odds, preview and my early Texas vs Florida betting prediction.

Texas vs Florida Odds

The Longhorns are a 6.5-point road favorite, and a short -245 on the moneyline. This was as short as the -300 range earlier in the week, but has moved down. Florida is at a distant +200 to win outright at home, with the total in at a low 42.5 points.

The total had been as high as 46 points at some books during each school’s bye week, but the number has shrunk, and on Monday, moved from 43.5 points to a new low of 42.5, where it currently sits.

Odds as of September 30 at 11 am ET. Be sure to check out the best DraftKings Sportsbook promo code before placing a bet on any Week 6 College Football matchup.

Texas vs Florida Line Movement

So here’s where there’s some confusion: Texas has demolished its competition after losing in Week 1 to Ohio State. Florida, meanwhile, hasn’t won since Week 1, failing to even hit the 17-point plateau.

Yet, with both teams coming out of a bye week, the line has dropped from 7.5 points down to 6.5, where it’s pretty standard across the board.

The question is: why?

Florida’s offense ranks outside the Top 100 in total yards and rushing, and 90th in pass yards, while starting pivot DJ Lagway was seen wearing a protective boot around campus following the Miami loss, and on the injured report with a leg injury.

DJ LAGWAY THROWS HIS 5TH INTERCEPTION OF THE NIGHT 😱 pic.twitter.com/iAlaByoqpM

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 14, 2025

Still, coach Bill Napier said Lagway is a full go against the Longhorns, who boast the nation’s fourth-ranked defense in total yards, first in yards per play at 3.6, while limited teams to 61.2 yards on the ground (3rd) and 151.2 passing yards per game (16th).

Texas also features Arch Manning, who’s a Top 20 candidate in the 2025 Heisman Trophy odds. He bounced back from a rough debut against the Buckeyes, and has now thrown for 888 yards and nine TD’s against just three interceptions.

He’s coming off his best passing day of the year, throwing for 309 yards and three scores — including his first interception-free game of the season — in a 55-0 demolition of Sam Houston.

Arch 🤝 Wingo pic.twitter.com/p7R6IWYeRS

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) September 21, 2025

Perhaps it’s a program respect bet, because very few schools that have looked this bad get inside a TD spread. It’s not like Florida has Texas’ number either: the Longhorns dismantled them 49-17 last season.

The college public betting percentages aren’t wavering, though, hammering Texas on the moneyline with 96% of the bets and 88% of the money. They’re also going hard at the total, with 85% of the bets and 87% of the money banging the Under.

Early Texas vs Florida Prediction

• Pick: Texas -6.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

The Gators aren’t remotely in the category of a school like, say, Notre Dame, who started the year with losses to both Miami and Texas A&M. They were ranked teams, and the Fighting Irish were in position to win both.

Florida was offensively shelled against Miami, as Lagway threw for just 61 yards, while the offense put up 80 yards rushing.

Lagway did throw for 287 yards against LSU, but was picked off five times, and they only produced 79 rush yards.

They’re the lowest scoring team in the SEC, and bottom-5 in both passing and rushing, nowhere close to propping up a defense that’s been fairly decent to start the year.

This is Texas’ second road game of the season, following the loss at Ohio State, but their defense travelled to Columbus, just like it will here.

Unless the books know something we couldn’t, if you want to bet Texas you should be laying money on this spread now, which feels absurd.