Tua Tagovailoa Injury Sends Alabama’s National Championship Odds from +250 to +300

• Tua Tagovailoa underwent surgery on Sunday to aid the recovery of his high-ankle sprain
• Tagovailoa had 27 days to recovery from this same injury/surgery last season
• The Crimson Tide play LSU on November 9th

The Alabama Crimson Tide entered the week as the No. 1 team in the country. They took care of business on Saturday, winning comfortably over Tennessee, but the Tide lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to an ankle injury. Their College Football Championship odds have dipped to +300.

Is now a good time to invest?

2020 National Championship Odds

*Odds taken 10/20/19.

Tagovailoa Undergoes Surgery

After the win over Tennessee, the Crimson Tide stated that Tagovailoa suffered a high-ankle sprain. These types of injuries take multiple weeks to heal from – players are typically out at least a month – but as we’ve seen with Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, it depends on the athlete.

The news that Tagovailoa had surgery on Sunday was surprising, possibly indicating that the injury is more serious than the team is letting on. He suffered the same injury last season on his other ankle, after the SEC Championship Game, and had the same surgery. That time he was able to return for the College Football Playoff.

Keep in mind that he had 27 days to heal in between the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff last season. In this window, he’ll have about 20 days before the Tide face-off with the No. 2 LSU Tigers.

Mac Jones Steps In

The Tide would have loved to have Jalen Hurts still on the roster, but as we know, he’s now at Oklahoma. They’ll instead turn to Mac Jones, who is a redshirt sophomore who came over from Florida. He has big shoes to fill as Tagovailoa led the nation in QBR (95.6) and had thrown 27 touchdowns versus just two interceptions.

The Tide won’t miss him next week when they take on Arkansas, who has been hapless this season. They’ll then have a bye week and prepare for LSU on November 9th. Jones just has to get them through Arkansas, but he also has to be ready to start against LSU, just in case.

Can Tide Make CFP With One Loss?

What’s interesting to note here is that perhaps Alabama can still lose to LSU and still make the College Football Playoff. If they lose to LSU, the Tigers would then have to go to the SEC Championship Game and might have to play someone like Georgia. If LSU loses, Alabama could have a case to get in.

Right now, the top four teams are Alabama, LSU, Ohio State and Clemson (Oklahoma in No. 5). I can’t see Clemson or Oklahoma losing again but there’s a lot of football left to be played. Alabama could possibly lose to LSU and still get into the College Football Playoff as a one-loss team.

What’s The Best Bet?

This is a really big injury for Alabama, but I don’t think this is a death cross. I think that he could come back in a few weeks and play well enough to beat LSU. Alabama could also possibly sneak into the College Football Playoff as a one-loss team – especially if that loss is to LSU.

I personally don’t love the +300 price tag at this point. You’re still betting them as the favorite, even though their title hopes have taken a big hit.

I’d rather take a shot with LSU at +450, as I think this really helps their case to get into the CFP.