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CrossFit Games 2019 Odds: Mat Fraser Heavy Favorite to Become Four-Time Champ

CrossFit Games champion Mat Fraser speaking to a crowd.
Mat Fraser is the odds-on favorite to win the men's competition at the 2019 CrossFit Games. A fourth straight title would tie the all-time record. Photo by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from Washington D.C, United States [Public domain].
  • The CrossFit games take place July 29-August 4 in Madison, Wisconsin
  • American Mat Fraser is an odds-on favorite to win his fourth straight championship
  • Aussie Tia-Clair Toomey has won two straight women’s crowns, but will face stiff competition from a trio from Iceland

Each and every year, CrossFit increases in popularity. In 2005, there were just 13 CrossFit gyms around the globe. That number is now over 13,000, according to CNBC.com.

As CrossFit continue to blossom, so too does its premier competition: the CrossFit Games. First contested in 2007, the CrossFit games arguably determine the fittest person on the planet.

The athletes compete in a series of workouts — which they only learn about days, sometimes hours, beforehand — which test every conceivable physical trait: strength, cardio, flexibility, etcetera.

Both the men’s and women’s competitions feature heavy favorites at the 2019 CrossFit Games (Jul. 29 to Aug. 4, Madison, WI). On the men’s side, three-time defending champion Mat Fraser is an odds-on favorite at -264. On the women’s side, two-time defending champion Tia-Clair Toomey is the chalk, but is at plus money(+130) due to stiff competition from several former champions from Iceland.

Men’s CrossFit Games 2019 Odds

CrossFit Competitor CrossFit Games 2019 Odds at Pinnacle
Mat Fraser (USA) -264
Patrick Vellner (Canada) +300
Brent Fikowski (Canada) +1000
Björgvin Karl Guðmundsson (Iceland) +1500
Noah Ohlsen (USA) +2000
Willy Georges (France) +2500
Travis Mayer (USA) +2500
Cole Sager (USA) +2500
James Newbury (Australia) +5000
Scott Panchik (USA) +5000

*Odds as of 24/07/19.

As mentioned, Fraser has won the past three CrossFit Games. Another win this year would tie him with CrossFit legend Rich Froning Jr., who won four in a row from 2011-14.

He’s a heavy favorite to match Froning’s record. He’s been simply dominant over the past three years, and has statistically improved each time out.

He’s been the only competitor to surpass 1000 points the last three years, and both his point total and his margin of victory have gone up from 2016 to 2017 to 2018.

Mat Fraser’s CrossFit Games Results

Year Mat Fraser’s Point Total Gap to Second Place Second-Place Finisher
2018 1162 220 points Patrick Vellner
2017 1132 216 points Brent Fikowski
2016 1096 197 points Ben Smith

Canadian Patrick Vellner represents the biggest threat to Fraser’s title, and his 942 points last year were the highest by anyone not named Mat Fraser since Froning had 962 way back in 2013. And he amassed that total despite some bad luck:

But Fraser remains on another level. Until we see him fall off, he’s the man to beat and a favorite worthy of these hyper-short odds.

Women’s CrossFit Games 2019 Odds

Competitor CrossFit Games 2019 Odds at Pinnacle
Tia-Clair Toomey (Australia) +130
Sara Sigmundsdottir (Iceland) +400
Katrin Davidsdottir (Iceland) +500
Annie Thorisdottir (Iceland) +700
Laura Horvath (Hungary) +800
Sam Briggs (UK) +2000
Brooke Wells  (USA) +2000
Jamie Greene (New Zealand) +2500
Kari Pearce (USA) +2500
Dani Speegle (USA) +2500
Bethany Shadburne (USA) +3000

*Odds as of 24/07/19.

The odds on the women’s side are more tightly packed. Tia-Clair Toomey is a sizable favorite at +130, but that’s nowhere near the overwhelming odds that Fraser has on the men’s side.

Toomey enters as the two-time defending champion, and she put in the best performance of her career in 2018. But there’s less separating her from the field.

Toomey’s 2017 win came by just two points. That margin increased to 64 points last year, hence the gap between her and second-favorite Katrin Davidsdottir.

Women’s CrossFit Games Results

Year Champion (Points) Gap to Second Place Second-Place Finisher
2018 Tia-Clair Toomey (1154) 64 points Laura Horvath
2017 Tia-Clair Toomey (994) 2 points Kara Saunders
2016 Katrin Davidsdottir (984) 11 points Tia-Clair Toomey

Davidsdottir is, herself, a two-time champion (2015 & 2016). She fell to third last year, but still just 26 years of age, certainly has the potential to get back to the apex of the sport in future competitions.

Annie Thorisdottir, another title hopeful from Iceland, won in 2011 and 2012 and gained fame from a Reebok commercial back in the day …

… but she’s more of a longshot as she’s now 29 year old and hasn’t finished in the top two since 2014.

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