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Egan Bernal (+550) Is the Best Bet in the Updated Tour de France Odds Heading into Stage 16

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in News

Updated Mar 25, 2020 · 9:31 AM PDT

Wide shot of the Tour de France peloton.
The Tour de France remains wide open. Photo by Felouch Kotek [CC License].
  • Stage 16 and 17 of the TDF (July 23-24) likely won’t shakeup the leaderboard much
  • But three treacherous mountain stages remain later in week three of cycling’s biggest race
  • After mixed results in the Pyrenees, six riders still have a real chance to win

Usually the more information you gather and the further along you get, answers become more clear. Not in the 2019 Tour de France. Six stages remain and who will wear the Yellow Jersey in Paris remains up in the air.

Last week, it seemed like the looming time trial and three mountain stages would help determine this year’s winner. Instead it just led to more questions and key strategic decisions.

It seems unlikely the standings will be drastically altered on a flat Stage 16 on Tuesday or a hilly Stage 17 on Wednesday, but three big mountain stages remain and those will decide the race.

Let’s look at the updated numbers and see where value lies based on the form we’ve seen so far from the remaining contenders.

2019 Tour de France Yellow Jersey Odds

Rider Odds Time-Gap to Yellow Jersey after Stage 15
Thibaut Pinot +150 +2:12
Geraint Thomas +350 +1:35
Julian Alaphilippe +350 +0:00
Egan Bernal +550 +2:02
Steven Kruijswijk +800 +1:47
Emanuel Buchmann +2000 +2:14

*Odds taken 07/22/19.

The story on Sunday was less Simon Yates’ second stage win this year, and more about Pinot gaining 18 seconds on Buchmann and Bernal, and 49 seconds on Thomas and Kruijswijk.

Alaphilippe leads the race by 95 seconds over Thomas. Kruijswijk is 12 seconds behind the defending champ. Pinot, Bernal, and Buchmann are next. Let’s look at each remaining contender’s road.

First Place: Julian Alaphilippe

For more than a week, the question has been when will Alaphilippe yield? His advantage is not insignificant, and his work in the mountains has been surprisingly strong.

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That said, he gets little support from his team, and three more serious climbs are not a recipe for holding on.

Second Place: Geraint Thomas

The favorite for much of the race, Thomas has looked vulnerable in the mountains. At one point on Sunday, it appeared his Yellow Jersey hopes were slipping away, but when it was all said and done, he is still in a decent position.

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If Alaphilippe gets worn out in the Alps, Thomas will have the first chance to take the lead and hold on. The odds are reasonable but watching day-to-day, it is hard to have much confidence.

Third Place: Steven Kruijswijk

Team Jumbo-Visma is having a terrific tour, and Kruijswijk is both benefiting and acquitting himself well. At the age of 32 he is a consistently strong rider wherever he goes, but does not possess the kick to ultimately win grand tour races. A podium finish is certainly possible.

Fourth Place: Thibaut Pinot

The last French rider to win the Tour was Bernard Hinault in 1985.

Pinot is now the betting favorite, and visually, he has been the most impressive rider. He won stage 14 and finished second in stage 15.

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At 29 years old, he has just one podium finish at a grand tour (3rd-place, 2014 TDF). This may be the year, but his price is too low to buy.

Fifth Place: Egan Bernal

The future of the sport, at the age of 22, Bernal was the favorite for parts of the first week of this year’s race. His odds have crept up, but why?

Outside of a mediocre time trial, he has been consistently strong, though not in any way dominant.

The +550 price on the pre-race favorite [Egan Bernal] is a good deal.

If Alaphilippe runs out of gas as we expect, and Bernal makes clear to his team that he is the stronger GC contender than Thomas, he has a decent chance facing Pinot in the mountains with a ten-second head start. The +550 price on the pre-race favorite is a good deal.

Sixth Place: Emanuel Buchmann

An excellent climber, Buchmann is not really the focus for Bora-Hansgrohe. Peter Sagan is going to win another Green Jersey so long as he makes it to Paris and, while his team would love Buchmann to make the podium, ensuring Sagan survives the mountains is their top priority.

Buchmann has a bright future, but he is an extreme longshot to win this year.

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