Tour de France Best Bet Ahead of Stage 12: Egan Bernal Still Second-Choice at +350
- Stage 12 of the TDF (Thursday, July 18th) will feature two category 1 climbs
- Team Ineos teammates Geraint Thomas and Egan Bernal remain the favorites in the General Classification
- What betting value exists in the Yellow Jersey future prices?
There have been 11 different winners of the first 11 stages of this year’s Tour de France. That said, the real racing is just starting. Stage 12 on Thursday (July 18) begins the first of five straight days that will likely determine this year’s winner.
Stage 12 features two difficult climbs late in the day, Friday is the individual time trial, and then there are three consecutive testing days in the mountains. Now could be the last chance to take advantage of the prices.
The current odds are not vastly different than when we checked last week. Expect more movement in the coming days as the strongest riders emerge.
2019 Tour de France Yellow Jersey Odds
| Rider | General Classification Odds | Time-Gap to Yellow Jersey after Stage 11 |
|---|---|---|
| Geraint Thomas | -180 | +1:12 |
| Egan Bernal | +350 | +1:16 |
| Thibaut Pinot | +1400 | +2:33 |
| Nairo Quintana | +1400 | +2:04 |
| Julian Alaphilippe | +1400 | +0:00 |
| Steven Kruijswijk | +2000 | +1:27 |
| Adam Yates | +2000 | +1:47 |
| Enric Mas Nicolau | +2500 | +1:46 |
*Odds taken 07/17/19.
Following Caleb Ewan’s stage 11 victory, the overall standings are mostly unchanged. Julian Alaphilippe, a fringe GC contender, leads Geraint Thomas by 72 seconds with Egan Bernal four seconds behind Thomas.
Steven Kruijswijk is 1:27 back in fourth-overall position.
Defending Champ Thomas Still Favored
Thomas, the defending champion, remains the favorite based primarily on his performance in the lone serious mountain stage thus far. Despite him saying prior to the testing climb that he was likely to lose some ground, he picked up seconds on his major rivals.
While Thomas was very impressive in the one real indicator we have had, and he is likely to gain an edge in the time trial, having one good day in the mountains does not mean the next several stages will go well. Though, between what he did last year, and thus far in 2019, he is the deserving chalk.
Lots of Racing to Come
Egan Bernal was the favorite a week ago. Thomas was better in the first significant mountain stage, and therefore he became the chalk. That’s fine, but the race has yet to arrive at the Pyrenees or Alps. In other words, there is a ton of racing still to go.
Bernal is one of the most-hyped young riders in recent memory and has had a tremendous season. His first major mountain stage was not a disaster, he just didn’t win like many were expecting.
The bottom line is the serious racing is about to begin, and because Thomas won the first battle over Bernal, the odds swayed in his direction. At this stage, Bernal provides a lot more betting value.
Is Quintana a Good Longshot to Bet On?
Nairo Quintana is likely to lose some ground in the time trial. But he is a terrific climber, has a great team, and has an extensive history. The 29-year-old was like Bernal a few years ago: the hyped future of the sport.
Quintana has been good, winning the Vuelta a España and finishing on the Tour podium three times, but he has yet to reach his potential. At a big price, this could be the year.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
