2018 Oscar Odds: Major Category Betting Favorites

Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand in the film Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand star in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Photo by Merrick Morton, Twentieth Century Fox.

The nominations for the 90th Academy Awards (March 4th, 8:00 PM ET, ABC) are all set, and so are our odds on who’ll win in each prestigious category.

The year in film was somewhat unpredictable, so it’s fitting that, while we were rather successful at predicting this year’s nominations, today’s official announcement had a few surprises and snubs.

Among the big names who didn’t get nominated are two-time Best Actor-winner Tom Hanks (The Post) and 2018 Golden Globe-honoree James Franco (The Disaster Artist). The most glaring omission is Martin McDonagh, the writer/director of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, who was left out in the cold in the Best Director category, even though his Golden Globe-winning film received seven nominations.

Some of the Globe’s snubs were remedied by the Academy, however. For instance, Greta Gerwig got a deserved nomination for Best Director and becomes only the fifth woman ever nominated in that category. Given the current climate in Hollywood, we may be due for the first female winner since Kathryn Bigelow (2010).

In terms of nominations en masseThe Shape of Water led the way with 13 nods, followed by Christopher Nolan’s World War II flick Dunkirk with eight. Unsurprisingly, both are among the favorites for Best Picture. Can either one usurp the momentum from Three Billboards, which won the Golden Globe for Best Drama? Three Billboards’ stars, Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell, already won Globes and SAG (Screen Actors Guild) Awards, too. That’s the kind of streak that can snowball into Oscar season.

Let’s bottle up all that buzz, shake it around, and pour out some fizzy odds on who’ll win the major categories at the 2018 Oscars.

Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird.
Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. Photo by Universal Pictures.

Best Picture

  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 2/1
  • The Shape of Water: 3/1
  • Dunkirk: 4/1
  • Lady Bird: 9/1
  • Call Me By Your Name: 19/1
  • Get Out: 25/1
  • The Post: 50/1
  • Darkest Hour: 200/1
  • Phantom Thread: 300/1

Best Director

  • Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water: 9/11
  • Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk: 3/1
  • Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird: 9/1
  • Jordan Peele – Get Out: 23/2
  • Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread: 49/1

Best Actress

  • Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 1/3
  • Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird: 17/3
  • Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water: 19/1
  • Meryl Streep – The Post: 25/1
  • Margot Robbie – I, Tonya: 100/1

Best Actor

  • Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour: 3/7
  • Timothêe Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name: 4/1
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread: 19/1
  • Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq.: 25/1
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out: 100/1

Best Supporting Actress

  • Allison Janney – I, Tonya: 1/1
  • Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird: 2/1
  • Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water: 9/1
  • Mary J. Blige – Mudbound: 19/1
  • Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread: 100/1

Best Supporting Actor

  • Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 3/2
  • Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project: 2/1
  • Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World: 4/1
  • Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water: 19/1
  • Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 100/1

Best Animated Feature

  • Coco: 1/9
  • Loving Vincent: 19/1
  • The Breadwinner: 25/1
  • The Boss Baby: 150/1
  • Ferdinand: 200/1

Best Documentary

  • Faces Places: 7/13
  • Last Men in Aleppo: 4/1
  • Icarus: 9/1
  • Strong Island: 25/1
  • Abacus: Small Enough to Jail: 100/1
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Trevor is Sports Betting Dime’s resident geek aka: entertainment writer. He also moonlights as a national film reviewer for other publications. He comes equipped with diplomas in marketing and broadcast journalism with a PHD in couch lounging. When he’s not sitting in a movie theater he’s usually watching TV, reading comics or playing video games. He’s what you call a “man child.”