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2023 Golden Globes Odds, Picks & Predictions: The Fabelmans Favored to Win Best Picture

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by Graham "GSM" Matthews in Entertainment

Updated Jan 7, 2023 · 3:00 PM PST

The cast of the Fabelmans
Producer Kristie Macosko Krieger, left, and cast receive the Vanguard Award for their part in "The Fabelmans" during the 34th Annual Palm Springs International Film Festival in Palm Springs, Calif., on Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023. Palm Springs International Film Awards4585
  • The 2023 Golden Globes will air live on Tuesday, January 10th
  • The Fabelmans is currently expected to win several awards
  • Who do the betting odds favor winning in the major categories?

Coming off such a strong year in film, the 2023 Golden Globes will honor the best of the best when the event airs live on Tuesday, January 10th.

In what should come as little surprise, The Fabelmans is expected to do exceptionally well at the event. The latest critically-acclaimed gem from Steven Spielberg finds itself heavily favored in multiple categories, along with several other 2022 box office hits.

Ahead of the 2023 Golden Globes, let’s look at who and what are currently expected to take home awards in four of the top categories according to the current betting odds.

Best Drama Odds

Film Odds
The Fabelmans -175
Top Gun: Maverick +300
Avatar: The Way of Water +500
Tar +1000
Elvis +1500

All odds as of Jan. 7. Browse the top online betting sites.


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The Fabelmans Favored to Win Best Drama

Although Babylon, Tar and The Whale were all released within the last three months and were expected to be in the running for Best Drama Picture at the Golden Globes, The Fabelmans blew them all away with how well it was received.

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Despite not having a widespread release in early November, The Fabelmans still captivated moviegoers enough for it to be considered a safe choice to dominate this category. Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water were the biggest box office hits of 2022 and both were heavily praised as well, but neither of them are coming close to The Fabelmans in the odds at -175.

Best Director Odds

Film Odds
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) -275
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) +250
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) +650
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) +750
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) +2000

Steven Spielberg Favored to Win Best Director

With The Fabelmans essentially a lock to take home Best Picture for Drama, it’s only academic that its director Steven Spielberg (whose life the film is largely about) would the top favorite to win Best Director as well.

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As a revered filmmaker, Spielberg has obviously had his time in the sun the last several decades, so an argument can be made for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert emerging victorious here instead. They created something special with Everything Everywhere All At Once and should be a bit closer in the odds than they currently are.

McDonagh, Cameron and Luhrmann all produced fine pieces of work but it really comes down to the top two nominees. Kwan and Scheinert have a decent chance, but the decorated Spielberg will be tough to top.

Best Actor Drama Odds

Film Odds
Austin Butler (Elvis) -110
Brendan Fraser (The Whale) +125
Bill Nighy (Living) +800
Hugh Jackman (The Son) +1200
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) +2000

Austin Butler Favored to Win Best Actor Drama

Elvis is the only film to appear in the aforementioned categories as well as Best Actor for a Drama. Although the film garnered largely positive reviews from moviegoers, Austin Butler’s performance was easily the highlight and played a pivotal role in its success both critically and financially.

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He is only really rivaled by Brendan Fraser, who received standing ovations at film festivals earlier in 2022 for the remarkable job he did with his role in The Whale. That combined with Fraser’s real-life heart-wrenching story from the last several years makes him not only a top candidate to come out on top but the best bet of everyone else nominated.

Hugh Jackson should be slightly higher than +1200 in the odds, but otherwise, it will be an incredibly close call between Butler and Fraser with the latter presumably pulling it out by a small margin.

Best Actress Drama Odds

Film Odds
Cate Blanchett (Tar) -300
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) +275
Ana de Armas (Blonde) +1000
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) +1000
Viola Davis (The Woman King) +1000

Cate Blanchett Favored to Win Best Actress Drama

As noted, The Fabelmans will undoubtedly clean up at the Golden Globes and win multiple awards, but it’s important to recognize other fantastic films as well, most notably Tar starring Cate Blanchett.

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Blanchett stole the film with her phenomenal performance and is definitely deserving of Best Actress in a Drama, making her the odds-on favorite. Michelle Williams from The Fabelmans is a fine runner-up at +275 followed by Ana de Armas from Blonde in a distant third at +1000, but there should be little debate that Blanchett kills it in this category.


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