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2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Predictions & How to Watch – Joey Chestnut Returns July 4

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in Entertainment

Published:


Competitive eater Joey “Jaws” Chestnut ate 57 hot dogs in five minutes at Fort Bliss’ “Pop Goes the Fort” Fourth of July celebration, beating his four competitors together at 49 hot dogs July 4, 2024.
  • Joey Chestnut returns to the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest after missing 2024 due to a sponsorship dispute
  • Chestnut is the massive -2500 favorite to win his 17th Mustard Belt on July 4
  • Find the latest Hot Dog Eating Contests odds, predictions, and how to watch the 2025 contest below

The king is back. After sitting out the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest over a sponsorship beef with Impossible Foods, Joey Chestnut returns to Coney Island as a -2500 favorite to win his 17th Mustard Belt.

The 16-time champion’s absence let Patrick Bertoletti grab his first title, but with Chestnut back, everyone else is seemingly fighting for second place.

Last year’s drama is over. Chestnut worked out a new three-year deal with Nathan’s and made it clear where his loyalties lie: “Nathan’s is the only hot dog company I’ve ever worked with.”

With the July 4 spectacle fast approaching, here’s everything you need to know about betting the 2025 Hot Dog Eating contest, including odds and predictions.

2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

Competitor Odds
Joey Chestnut -2500
Patrick Bertoletti +1200
Geoffrey Esper +2500
James Webb +2500
Nick Wehry +4000
Any Other Eater +5000
Derek Hendrickson +8000

The odds tell the story here. Chestnut at -2500 means you’d need to bet $2,500 just to win $100. That gives him a 96.2% implied probability to win. For comparison, last year’s field without Chestnut was wide open, with Geoffrey Esper opening as a slight -105 favorite.

Caesars also offers a “Winner Without Chestnut” market if you want more reasonable odds:

  • Patrick Bertoletti -125
  • Geoffrey Esper +275
  • James Webb +300
  • Nick Wehry +1000

The over/under markets are where the real action is. Chestnut’s total sits at 71.5 hot dogs (-105 over, -125 under), while defending champ Bertoletti’s line is 55.5 (-120 over, -110 under).

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Odds as of July 4, 2025, at Caesars Sportsbook. Take Advantage of the Caesars promo code to bet on the 2025 Hot Dog Challenge.

Quick note: If Caesars isn’t offering these markets in your state, Kalshi has prediction markets on whether the winner will eat 70+, 75+, or 80+ hot dogs, with over $4 million already wagered.

2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Predictions

Let’s be real. Betting Chestnut at -2500 is like betting the sun will rise tomorrow. The value just isn’t there. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find some angles worth playing.

Best Bet: Geoffrey Esper Winner Without Chestnut (+275)

This is where the smart money should go. Esper has finished runner-up to Chestnut three straight years (2021-2023) and only ate 43 dogs in his qualifier because he was 20 ahead and coasting.

YouTube video

Just three weeks ago, he destroyed James Webb in a strawberry shortcake contest, eating 17.5% more than his rival. At nearly 3-to-1 odds, Esper offers solid value in the battle for second place.

Lean: Joey Chestnut Under 71.5 Hot Dogs (-125)

Before you call me crazy, hear me out. Chestnut has only cleared 71.5 four times in his last 10 Nathan’s contests. He ate 62 and 63 in his last two Coney Island appearances.

Sure, he downed 83 in that Netflix special last year, but those were different hot dogs under different conditions. The rust factor plus the pressure of his return should keep him under this number.

Long Shot: Nick Wehry Top 3 Finish

At +1000 to win without Chestnut, Wehry is worth a sprinkle. He’s married to women’s champion Miki Sudo and finished fourth last year with 46.75 dogs, just four behind Esper. The household rivalry might push him to new heights.

How to Watch the 2025 Contest

The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest returns to its traditional July 4 slot with both contests airing live from Coney Island:

Women’s Contest:

  • Time: 10:45 a.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN3
  • Favorite: Miki Sudo (-2500)

Men’s Contest:

  • Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2
  • Streaming: fubo, ESPN+

ESPN will also offer special camera feeds throughout the day, including a “Chestnut Cam” starting at 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN3. The main event replays at 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET if you miss the live action.

The total prize pool is $40,000, split evenly between the men’s and women’s divisions. Winners take home $10,000 plus the coveted Mustard Belt (yellow for men, pink for women).

Chestnut’s return brings major storylines to this year’s contest. Can he immediately reclaim his crown? Will he chase his unofficial record of 83 dogs? Can Bertoletti prove last year wasn’t a fluke?

Whatever happens, we’re guaranteed fireworks on the Fourth. Just remember to bet responsibly, because unlike the competitors, you should know when to stop.

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Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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