2026 Oscars Odds: Final Predictions for the 98th Academy Awards

• The 98th Academy Awards (the Oscars) takes place on Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles, CA
• Now that the Oscars are one day away, predictions, projections, and detailed analysis will finally be validated or proven wrong
• Prediction markets have options for all the major awards, with some thrown into recent flux by surprising pre-Oscars awards wins at BAFTA and the Actor awards

With the Oscars imminent, the odds for award winners (and losers) warrant a final look, with potential opportunities to profit. That includes top honors like Best Picture, Best Actor and Actress, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress.

To shine some light on just how competitive and unpredictable Sunday’s show will be, it was not long ago that prediction markets viewed the star of Marty Supreme, Timothée Chalamet, as a nearly guaranteed pick for his first Best Actor win. He was nominated twice before, and it seemed to be his time based on this performance, his reviews, and the competition not being daunting.

However, after Robert Aramayo (not even nominated for an Oscar) won at BAFTA for I Swear, Chalamet’s inevitability began teetering. Then Michael B. Jordan won at the Actor Awards for his role in Sinners. Suddenly, Jordan took the lead in the prediction markets as the Oscars drew closer.

There is great potential for surprises in every category, and prediction markets have odds for all the action.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to unlock a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $10 in trades have been completed.

Oscars Odds for Best Picture

One Battle After Another is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture, at more than 75% in the prediction markets. The Paul Thomas Anderson/Leonardo DiCaprio collaboration is drawing almost all of the air, and it’s timely, given its theme of resistance and the long-term consequences of taking a stand. The film has the star power and critical acclaim that many voters look for.

Sinners is also timely and has far greater diversity, which the Academy has been paying greater attention to in recent years. Still, it’s lingering at slightly more than 20% in the markets, and its underlying horror theme could turn off many voters who see these types of films as lowbrow.

Hamnet is at 3%, and given its critical acclaim and that it’s about Shakespeare, there is little to lose in picking it to win with the potential for huge profit.

The easy pick is One Battle After Another, but the sharp pick is a dart throw on Hamnet.

Oscars Odds for Best Actor

Best Actor might be the hardest award upon which to make an educated prediction, given the factors listed above. Timothée Chalamet is now far behind Michael B. Jordan, who is approaching 60% on the markets. Leonardo DiCaprio is at less than 10%.

While the BAFTA and Actor Awards are generally viewed as bellwethers, neither Jordan nor Chalamet won at BAFTA, and it was Jordan’s win at the Actor Awards that roiled the markets, put Chalamet’s lead in jeopardy, and eventually led to Jordan’s rise.

Will the Academy pick Jordan despite him being in a “horror” film? Since the diversity issue has come to the forefront, he could accrue support based on that, though mentioning it unfairly diminishes his work. He has put up excellent performances for a long time, going back to Fruitvale Station.

Chalamet’s youth could work against him as well.

The easy play here is Jordan.

Oscars Odds for Best Actress

Jessie Buckley is approaching Harlem Globetrotters vs Washington Generals odds to win the Best Actress Oscar, currently around the upper 90% range in prediction markets. This could be the opening for a Hamnet win if, as the markets expect, it falls short in the Best Picture category.

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You) is in the low single digits. The other contenders — Emma Stone (Bugonia), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) — are not registering.

Buckley is all but guaranteed to win for her role as a grieving mother who lost a child.

Oscars Odds for Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson has been a critical darling for his quirky films, often about lurid, everyday topics or based on arcane books (frequently by Thomas Pynchon). This goes back nearly 30 years to his early works like Hard Eight and Boogie Nights, and extends to Inherent Vice. This time, he’s nominated for One Battle After Another, his fourth time being on the verge of getting the statue, and his second Pynchon adaptation. The current odds are beyond 90% for Paul Thomas Anderson to win.

Ryan Coogler is at around 10% for his work directing Sinners.

Anderson has been around so long and has been nominated so many times that he’ll finally get his recognition. Ironically, it’s for a film that probably isn’t as good as past works, including There Will Be Blood. If it is any solace for him, the Coen brothers deserved to win that year, 2008, for No Country for Old Men.

Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor

Sean Penn has been nominated for Best Actor five times, having won for Mystic River and Milk. This is his first Best Supporting Actor nomination after his performance in One Battle After Another.

He is well-regarded by the Academy, and his political stances draw accolades from a big chunk of Hollywood. His percentages are in the mid-70s.

Next is veteran character actor Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value. This is his first Oscar nomination after a very long career, going back more than 40 years. It’s certainly plausible that he gets a “career” award, particularly since Penn has won so many times and those awards were Best Actor.

An interesting option is Delroy Lindo. He’s not far behind Skarsgard for his work in Sinners. A recognizable face in many of Spike Lee’s films, Lindo always gives a great performance and sticks to the role without overshadowing the star. At around 10%, he might be worth the pick even though Penn is exceedingly likely to win.

Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan has made a late run after her win at the Actor Awards for her role as Aunt Gladys in Weapons. In her mid-70s and having had a long and respectable career as a character actress, this could be another “meritorious service” award for someone who never got the recognition she probably deserved for her talents.

Still, Teyana Taylor drew widespread acclaim for her portrayal of a complex character in One Battle After Another and has an interesting and wide-ranging backstory.

Madigan is at just under 50%. Taylor is in the low-30s. Before Madigan’s Actor Award win, it was seen as Taylor’s to lose. The diversity aspect, as condescending as it can be, could factor in. But that might be cleared with Jordan’s Best Actor, if he gets it.

Wunmi Mosaku is not out of the running for Sinners at around 20%.

Expect Taylor and Mosaku to cancel each other out, clearing the way for Madigan to take the Oscar.