2025 Oscar Odds Tracker: Anora Favored to Win Best Picture

• See the odds from open to close to win all the major awards at the 2025 Oscars
• Anora is the heavy Best Picture favorite, while The Brutalist and Conclave are the top challengers
• Learn trends from past years of Academy Awards shows to predict the 2025 Oscar winners

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Betting odds are available for which movies and actors will take home hardware at the 97th Academy Awards. The current 2025 Oscar betting odds heavily favor Sean Baker’s Anora, which has already collected key precursor awards.

The Kalshi prediction market provides realtime odds in the months leading up to the March 2nd, 2025 ceremony. Notable challengers to Anora for Best Picture include The Brutalist and Conclave.

The graphs below track the odds to win the major categories at the 2025 Oscars. Under the graphs, find notes on odds movement and relevant context for each category.

Best Picture Top Contenders

• [Feb 25] Anora had been the strong favorite for Best Picture, but Conclave’s win at SAG turned it into a real two-horse race. Before the ceremony, Anora was at 74% on Kalshi. After losing Best Ensemble to Conclave, its chances dropped to 64%, while Conclave surged to 22%, overtaking The Brutalist.
• [Jan 25] With the nominations revealed, Anora has solidified its frontrunner status, jumping to a 55% chance. The Brutalist sits second at 24% after its surprising 10 total nominations.
• [Jan 10] Coming off Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, Anora has leapt to the top of the Best Picture odds at 44%. Conclave and Dune: Part Two are tied for second at 15%.
• [Oct 24] With critics awards underway, the Best Picture race is wide open. Anora currently leads at 27% odds, followed by Conclave at 22%, The Brutalist at 18% and Dune: Part Two at 15%.

2025 Oscars – Best Picture Odds

Implied probabilities derived from Kalshi prediction market trading prices as of March 2nd, 2025. Bet on these markets with the Kalshi promo code.

Past Best Picture Winners

Best Actor Top Contenders

• [Mar 2] On the morning of the Oscars, Brody’s odds have improved back to 70% as traders are confident Chalamet’s SAG win was an outlier.
• [Feb 24] Chalamet’s surprising Best Actor win has shaken up the Best Actor market. Earlier in the day, Brody had a 76% chance to win on Kalshi. After the SAG results, his odds dropped to 63%, with Chalamet surging.
• [Feb 1] Despite some debate about the use of AI voice technology in his performance, Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has pulled away as a huge 76% favorite in the Best Actor race. His closest competition is Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) at 21%.
• [Jan 25] Following the Oscar nominations, Brody has solidified his favorite status at 62% implied odds. Chalamet remains second at 30% after strong reviews for A Complete Unknown.
• [Jan 10] With a surprise win at the Golden Globes, Brody has jumped to the top of the Best Actor odds at 37%. Previous favorite Timothée Chalamet sits second at 26%.
• [Dec 11] Early critic awards have Chalamet out front at 31% odds for A Complete Unknown. Veterans Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) are close behind at 25% and 22% respectively.

2025 Oscars – Best Actor Odds

Past Best Actor Winners

Best Actress Top Contenders

• [Feb 22] In a competitive race, Demi Moore (The Substance) currently leads with 55% odds, buoyed by a strong “Oscar narrative” and recent Golden Globe win. BAFTA winner Mikey Madison (Anora) is close behind at 40%.
• [Jan 25] Post-nominations, Moore (48%) and Madison (49%) are in a virtual dead heat for Best Actress. Industry experts note this may be 60-year-old Moore’s last chance at an Oscar win.
• [Jan 10] After taking home the Golden Globe, Moore has jumped to the front of the Best Actress odds at 39%. Critics Choice winner Madison is second at 33%, with Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) also in the mix at 20%.
• [Dec 11] Early buzz has Torres leading the pack with 29% odds for her comeback vehicle I’m Still Here. Ingenue Madison is second at 24% for Anora, while Moore sits third at 19% for her baity role in The Substance.

2025 Oscars- Best Actress Odds

Past Best Actress Winners

Best Director Top Contenders

• [Feb 22] After winning the predictive DGA award, Sean Baker (Anora) has pulled ahead as the 56% favorite for Best Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) sits second at 45%.
• [Jan 25] With nominations set, Baker maintains his lead over Corbet, 48% to 44%. No other nominee tops 5% implied odds.
• [Jan 10] Following his Golden Globe win, Corbet has edged ahead of Baker as the Best Director favorite, 42% to 39%. They appear to be the clear top two.
• [Dec 11] Early critic awards have a tight three-way race for Best Director between Baker (29%), Corbet (26%) and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) at 21%.

2025 Oscars – Best Director Odds

Past Best Director Winners

Academy Awards FAQ

When are the Oscars 2025?

The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for March 2nd, 2025 at 7pm EST.

Where are the 2025 Oscars held?

The 2025 Oscars will once again be held at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles.

How to watch the 2025 Oscars?

The Oscars ceremony will be televised live on ABC and streamed online at ABC.com and the ABC app. A cable subscription or login is required for the digital streams.

Who won Best Picture at last year's Oscars?

Oppenheimer took home Best Picture at the 2024 Academy Awards.

Where can I bet on the Oscars in 2025?

The Kalshi prediction market provides realtime Oscars odds across the major categories in the lead-up to the 2025 Academy Awards.

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Archived Academy Awards odds:

• 2024
• 2023
• 2022
• 2021
• 2020
• 2019