Call it a battle of the Late Night Jimmys. Jimmy Fallon got his awards show feet wet at this year’s Golden Globes. James Corden did the same at the Grammys. Now it’s Jimmy Kimmel’s turn on the biggest stage of all: the 2017 Oscars (5:30 PM, February 26, 2017).
Will Kimmel reign as king of the Jimmys, or will he fall flat on his (let’s be honest) smug little face?
Leading up to the show, your biggest questions for us soothsayers at SBD are probably about the awards, themselves. We’ll get to our updated awards odds in due course – and feel free to juxtapose them with our very early numbers to see what’s changed. But the actual awards are only half the fun. Every year, we put some atypical odds on secondary storylines, like who or what the host is going to pick on and, in a more recent tradition, how much diversity we’ll see at the ceremony.
For the 2017 edition, we’re also looking at some Trumpy props, some baby-bumpy props, and some DiCaprio-is-grumpy props.
Atypical Oscar Odds 2017
O/U number of times Jimmy Kimmel says the name “Trump” during the broadcast: 4.5
O/U number of times Kimmel says “Donald Trump”, “Donald”, “Trump” or “President” during his opening monologue: 2.5
There’s not going to be any shortage of Trump jokes at this year’s show. But you don’t even need to say the name “Trump” or the word “President” for everyone to know that you’re making fun of Trump.
Odds Kimmel’s first joke will be about …
- Trump/politics: 2/1
- Diversity in Hollywood/Academy Awards: 3/1
- Matt Damon: 4/1
- Super Bowl: 17/3
- Field: 12/1
Odds Best Actress nominee Natalie Portman gives birth on the day of the Oscars: 25/1
We don’t know her exact due date, but it’s probably around Feb. 26.
Odds Leonardo DiCaprio makes a political/environmental statement while presenting the Best Actor award: 1/1
Leo got enviro-political last year when he won the award. In December, DiCaprio actually met with Trump to talk climate change. Then Trump appointed a climate-change denier as the head of the EPA. I don’t think he was really feeling what Leo had to say. DiCaprio might want to fire back and has already proved he’ll use the Oscar stage to do so.
Odds La La Land wins 13 of the 14 awards it is nominated for: 1,500/1
La La Land is the chalk in most of those 14 categories, but hitting a 14-team parlay is next to impossible, even if every team is the Harlem Globetrotters.
O/U total number of Oscars won by …
- La La Land (nominated a record 14 times): 7.5
- Arrival (8 nominations): 1.5
- Moonlight (8 nominations): 3.5
- Hacksaw Ridge (6 nominations): 1
- Lion (6 nominations): 2.5
- Manchester by the Sea (6 nominations): 3
La La Land odds in the four major categories (Best Actor/Best Actress/Best Picture/Best Director)
- Odds to win all four: 22/1
- Odds to get shutout in all four: 1/99
- “Daily Double” (odds to win Best Actor and Best Actress): 11/1
- “Best Picture Trifecta” (odds to win Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Picture): 16/1
- “Best Director Trifecta” (odds to win Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Director): 15/1
These odds would be a lot shorter if not for Casey Affleck. Ryan Gosling is going to get trumped for Best Actor. (Hey, should I be keeping my own “trump” count?) The other three should come through for the team.
Odds of Fences/Denzel Washington winning Best Picture and Best Actor: 250/1
Denzel might be Affleck’s biggest competition for Best Actor, but Fences ain’t gonna win Best Picture.
Odds the following African Americans win
- Best Actor/Denzel Washington, Fences: 2/1
- Best Actress/Ruth Negga, Loving: 50/1
- Best Supporting Actor/Mahershala Ali, Moonlight: 3/2
- Best Supporting Actress/Viola Davis, Fences: 1/2
- Best Director/Barry Jenkins, Moonlight: 14/1
Odds the Best Actress winner mentions Meryl Streep (if Streep doesn’t win): 2/3
It’s pretty common to mention the other nominees. It’s almost a pre-req to mention Streep when it comes to Best Actress. The award is probably going to be named after her one day.
O/U length of longest acceptance speech: 2 minutes
O/U length of shortest acceptance speech: 35 seconds
Odds on whom Brad Pitt brings as his date
- One of his children: 3/2
- Stag: 2/1
- Mother: 17/3
- Kate Hudson: 75/1
- Field: 9/1
Odds on whom Leonardo DiCaprio brings as his date
- Nina Agdal: 2/3
- Stag: 4/1
- Mother: 9/1
- Field: 9/1
Updated Awards Odds
- La La Land: 1/5
- Moonlight: 9/1
- Manchester by the Sea: 16/1
- Lion: 45/1
- Arrival: 50/1
- Fences: 100/1
- Hidden Figures: 100/1
- Hacksaw Ridge: 150/1
- Hell or High Water: 200/1
- Damien Chazelle (La La Land): 1/8
- Barry Jenkins (Moonlight): 14/1
- Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea): 20/1
- Denis Villeneuve (Arrival): 40/1
- Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge): 90/1
- Emma Stone (La La Land): 1/4
- Natalie Portman (Jackie): 8/1
- Isabelle Huppert (Elle): 19/1
- Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins): 30/1
- Ruth Negga (Loving): 50/1
- Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea): 1/1
- Denzel Washington (Fences): 5/2
- Ryan Gosling (La La Land): 9/1
- Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge): 19/1
- Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic): 40/1
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis (Fences): 1/2
- Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea): 5/1
- Naomie Harris (Moonlight): 8/1
- Nicole Kidman (Lion): 20/1
- Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures): 40/1
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali (Moonlight): 3/2
- Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water): 4/1
- Dev Patel (Lion): 4/1
- Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea): 17/3
- Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals): 20/1
Let's have fun and keep it civil.