Political Odds: Predictions for the 2020 Presidential Race

Are you applying for a government job? Are you generally a fan of having healthcare? If so, President Trump’s first batch of executive orders probably have you in the dumps right now. Here’s some good news. With each new day, we’re one step closer to the Donald no longer being President! As Gandalf once said, “that is an encouraging thought.”

Let’s take a step back from the day-to-day disappointments in the world and look a little further into the future. Here’s a fun question — who will run for President in 2020?

Things are only getting started with Trump but already we’re seeing some politicians eyeing a 2020 bid. Of course, none of them would ever admit it, but the signs are there. So who are they and what are their chances?

Here are our top picks on who will run for president in 2020.


Odds to run for President of the United States in 2020:

Republicans

Donald Trump: 2/3

Maybe this is wishful thinking. Usually the odds would be a lot higher for a first-term President. There’s so much that could go wrong for the incumbent, though. There’s the looming threat of impeachment; there’s the chance he just steps down; or maybe the Republican party decides that enough is enough.

We really have no idea what will happen, but historically-speaking, the vast majority of first-term Presidents stand for reelection.

Mike Pence: 7/3

If Donald Trump doesn’t stand for reelection, it will probably be Vice President Mike Pence who takes over the Republican ticket. Pence is a rare breed of Republican who currently has the support of both establishment Republicans and Trump supporters.

Paul Ryan: 4/1

The speaker of the house is beloved by the Republican establishment but reviled by Trump supporters. That puts him in a tough position at the moment. If the Republican Party decides to dump Trumpism and go back to its traditional conservative roots, then he is the guy to lead them.

Democrats

Elizabeth Warren: 3/2

Bernie Sanders brought out a side of the Democratic party that had been dormant for some time. Elizabeth Warren has been a champion of the Democratic left in the Senate and she could use the momentum generated by Bernie to propel her 2020 campaign. However, she did endorse Clinton over Sanders in the 2016 Primaries, choosing to align with the establishment over the Bernie supporters. The could come back to bite her.

Michelle Obama: 39/11

When Michelle Obama talks, America swoons. Her recent speeches at the 2016 Democratic Convention and her farewell speech as first lady captured the hearts of Democrats across the country. She has stated, over and over again, that she will not run for President. But of course, that’s what they all say.

Hillary Clinton: 17/3

Third time’s the charm, right?

Hillary Clinton has become a steady fixture in recent US elections but whether the Democratic Party is willing to take another chance on her remains to be seen. After almost three decades in the public eye, the Clintons have accrued a lot of baggage and it seems to keep coming back to haunt them. The Democrats will probably opt for a fresher face the next time round.


Photo credit: “Hillary Clinton – Caricature” by DonkeyHotey, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.