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Bitcoin Odds: Is Sky the Limit for Soaring Currency?

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Entertainment

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

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Jason Benjamin [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

Bitcoin recently soared to new heights in early March, with the value of one Bitcoin hitting almost $1,300. That’s a record high for Bitcoin, despite a strong clamp-down on the cryptocurrency by the Chinese government. In 2016, Bitcoin outperformed every major index fund, making it one of the best investments of the year. The recent surge even skyrocketed the price of one Bitcoin beyond the price of an ounce of gold.

Now, in the next chapter of the saga, Bitcoin will be seeking mainstream acceptance. The Winklevoss twins — the same twins that famously sued Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg — have launched a campaign to have their Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bitcoin has the ability to turn the financial sector on its head, so it’s a huge deal that the SEC is even considering a Bitcoin-tied ETF. They set March 11th as the deadline for a decision, but it could be delayed to the 13th.

Will the ETF be approved? Will Bitcoin’s value continue to climb? Will you be able to buy groceries with the cryptocurrency any time soon? Let’s look at the odds!


Bitcoin Odds

Odds the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC in March: 13/7

Some Bitcoin enthusiasts are extremely hopeful, but there’s a lot of red-tape involved in the process. The financial sector has been extremely skeptical of Bitcoin and there’s still a lot standing in its way to becoming recognized as a legitimate currency.

However, if the ETF is approved, it will open up the cryptocurrency to the entire public, not just tech-savvy investors.

O/U Price of Bitcoin in USD on …

March 10th: $1,200
March 15th: $1,230
December 31st: $1,300

The price of Bitcoin may have soared to dizzying heights, but it is also known to crash in spectacular fashion. Bitcoin’s volatility has been a feature of the currency since its inception, making its future value notoriously difficult to predict. But if its value can continue to soar despite a fierce crackdown by the Chinese Central Bank, then there’s hope for Bitcoin’s future stability.

Odds of a 2017 IPO from the following Bitcoin solutions/apps

Blockchain: 7/3
AirBitz: 4/1
Trezor: 4/1
Coindesk: 9/1
Purse: 20/1

A whole business ecosystem has developed around Bitcoin. The success of the currency has spurred the growth of online exchanges, digital wallets, online stores, and even physical storage options. As Bitcoin flourishes, so do these businesses. And very soon, we could be seeing these companies grow big enough to go public. The odds of that being within the calendar year, though, are still pretty long.

Odds on major US retailers accepting Bitcoin as payment in 2017

Amazon: 11/9
Apple: 3/1
Walmart: 20/1
Best Buy: 20/1
Home Depot: 25/1
Costco: 40/1
Target: 50/1
Staples: 80/1

Mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin is still a ways away. One crucial step towards that will be its acceptance by major retailers. As it stands, very few major retailers in the US accept Bitcoin, which limits the scope of the currency. (At the moment, purchasing products on Amazon with Bitcoin is possible but it must be done through a third party.)

As Bitcoin becomes harder and harder to ignore, we’re going to see retailers start to accept it as a method of payment. They’ll quickly realize that, by accepting a payment method their competitors do not, they will be able to carve out a bigger market share. And once the first domino falls …

In terms of timing, if the SEC decision rules in favor of Bitcoin, we should see the first major retailers get on board very soon.

What will be higher on July 1, 2017 …

the price of Bitcoin: 7/13
the price of gold: 13/7

Bitcoin recently soared past the price of gold and is showing little signs of dropping significantly, my earlier comments on its historic volatility notwithstanding. The price of both gold and Bitcoin tends to increase during times of economic uncertainty, but it looks like Bitcoin is become a viable alternative to its physical counterpart.

What will be higher on October 1, 2017 …

the price of Bitcoin: 3/7
the price of a maxed out iPhone 8: 7/3

The cost of a maxed out iPhone 8 will definitely exceed $1,000, and unless something wildly unexpected happens, so will the price of Bitcoin. Even if the SEC does not rule in favor of Bitcoin, it’s unlikely that it will drop under $1,000.

What will cause the highest spike in the price of Bitcoin in the next 12 months

a positive SEC ruling on Winklevoss ETF: 4/1
progress from other ETFs: 4/1
poor economic indicators from China: 17/3
a major company begins accepting the currency: 9/1
a financial crisis: 9/1
Brexit: 20/1
a tweet from Trump: 50/1

Broadly speaking, two things will cause the price of Bitcoin to spike: (1) increased trust and acceptance from the financial sector and general public, and (2) decreased confidence in other major currencies. So a positive SEC ruling would do wonders for the currency, as would financial collapse and uncertainty. Careful what you wish for.

O/U how many Bitcoins it will cost to fly to Mars when SpaceX opens to the public: 1,000 BTC

Elon Musk’s goal to offer manned missions to Mars for space tourists is a lofty one. With today’s infrastructure, it would cost roughly $10 billion to send a man to Mars. Musk hopes to eventually bring the cost down to around $200,000.

Odds on which sports team will be first to accept Bitcoin at its concessions

an E-sports team/event: 3/1
San Francisco 49ers: 4/1
Shanghai SIPG: 9/1
F.C Tokyo: 19/1

Teams from tech-hubs like San Francisco and Shanghai will be the most open to accepting the new currency. Japan has taken quite a few steps in acknowledging Bitcoin as a legitimate currency, too, so their most popular soccer team, F.C Tokyo, may be on their way to accepting payments in the cryptocurrency.

For my money, though, I think the first place we’ll see BTC accepted is in the world of E-sports, which is always eager to adopt new technologies.

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