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Black Panther on the Way to the Top? Box Office Odds

Chadwick Boseman in
Chadwick Boseman in "Black Panther" (Marvel)
  • Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther has taken over Titanic’s spot as third highest-grossing title of all time at the US box office.
  • The Marvel superhero movie now falls just behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar.

After Black Panther turned in Marvel Studio’s biggest opening weekend ever, with a whopping $202 million domestically, it was pretty clear that big things were in store for our Wakandans. Not only did the movie make over $100 million more than predicted that opening weekend, it boasts the biggest opening for a black director ever and stands as the biggest February opening of all time.

A 52-day stint may not break any records, but what it does do is show us just how leggy Black Panther really is.

Now, the ground-breaking superhero movie has officially replaced James Cameron’s long-standing record-holder Titanic (1997) as the third highest-grossing film of all time ($666.2 million), coming in just behind Cameron’s other hit, Avatar ($760.5 million), and Disney’s phenom, Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.7 million).

For 52 days, Black Panther managed to bring in at least $1 million per day, only dipping below that benchmark this past Monday. For sake of comparison, Star Wars: The Force Awakens fell below the million mark on its 46th day, while Titanic lasted an impressive 102 days at $1 million or above. A 52-day stint may not break any records, but it does show us just how leggy Black Panther really is.

How strong is Black Panther’s stay power?

Will Black Panther make it past the 3-month mark in theatres? Odds
NO 1/3
YES 3/1

While Disney surely wouldn’t be losing out if the movie did stick around past the slated DVD/Blu/4K release date of May 15th, they’ve got other fish to fry soon. Avengers: Infinity War is set for release on April 25th, which is just around the corner, and the studio has no need to pit what will soon be of it’s highest grossing films ever against one another.

It is much more likely than not that Black Panther will move aside as Infinity Wars comes to the forefront.

Can Black Panther make it past No. 3?

Will Black Panther pass Avatar in box office gross earnings (domestic)? Odds
NO 1/3
YES 3/1

Assuming that Black Panther‘s theatrical run is nearing a close, and taking into consideration that its earnings are now below $1 million a dayit isn’t likely to overtake its closest competitor before the box office closes. Even if it stuck around theatres past May 15th, there is a $94.3 million difference to make up and at under $1 million a day…again, this is a no for us.

Will Black Panther pass Star Wars: The Force Awakens in box office gross earnings (domestic)? Odds
NO 1/9
YES 9/1

If all the stars aligned, and all the gods smiled upon Wakanda, Black Panther could make it close to Avatar‘s earnings — but, $936.7 million is a whole other ball game.

Black Panther vs. Infinity War

Which Marvel movie will earn more (domestic box office)? Odds
Avengers: Infinity War 2/3
Black Panther 3/2

Marvel Studios have been building to this point for an entire decade, and the anticipation is soaring. April 27th Avengers: Infinity War opens, giving us the biggest Marvel-verse team-up ever. Already numbers are above and beyond — Infinity War is selling twice as much as Black Panther did at this point pre-release — and it is currently predicted to become the highest-grossing superhero movie of all time.

Though Ryan Coogler was able to capture a zeitgeist in his ground-breaking Black Panther, it is highly unlikely that it will be able to outperform the 10-years-in-the-making, all-roads-lead-us-to-this Infinity War.

 

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An unabashed interest in the lives of other people and all things pop culture makes analyzing the world of entertainment an easy fit for Kaela. One of SBD's resident experts since 2017, she keeps her finger on the pulse so you can feel confident, and have fun, making informed wagers.