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Early 2024 Oscar Odds & Predictions: Killers of the Flower Moon Favored to Win Best Picture

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by Graham "GSM" Matthews in Entertainment

Updated Mar 24, 2023 · 1:36 PM PDT

Leonardo DiCaprio at the Oscars
Jan 27, 2020; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Leonardo DiCaprio nominated for best performance by an actor in a leading role in "Once upon a Time...in Hollywood" arrives to the Nominees Luncheon for the 92nd Oscars at the Ray Dolby Ballroom at Hollywood and Highland. Mandatory Credit: Dan MacMedan via USA TODAY
  • Speculation is already underway as to who will win big at the 2024 Oscars
  • Everything Everywhere All At Once dominated the 95th Academy Awards despite opening as longshot
  • Who do the opening odds favor winning in next year’s major categories?

The 2023 Oscars are officially in the books and Everything Everywhere All At Once understandably swept most of the major categories.

The film wasn’t predicted to win out early on, which may set an interesting trend going forward. Although there were several first-time winners last weekend, next year’s installment is bound to feature a ton of big names based on the initial projections.

Everything Everywhere took home Best Picture for 2023 and Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon is the odds-on favorite as of now to do the same. Speaking of Scorsese, he is the favorite to win Best Director in 2024 along with Joaquin Phoenix as Best Actor and Emily Blunt as Best Actress.

The 96th Academy Awards won’t be for another year, but it’s never too soon to start looking at who is expected to emerge victorious in each category according to the current betting odds.

Best Picture Odds

Film Odds
Killers of the Flower Moon +250
Oppenheimer +255
The Color Purple +325
Asteroid City +600
The Killer +600
Dune: Part Two +750


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All odds as of March 17. Browse the top online betting sites.

Killers of the Flower Moon Favored to Win Best Picture

If you haven’t heard much about Killers of Flower Moon yet, it’s merely a matter of time before you do. It will be based on the 2017 non-fiction novel of the same name and focus on the 1920s Oklahoma murders dealing with oil being discovered in the Osage Nation.


With a star-studded cast consisting of Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Brendan Fraser and others, it isn’t difficult to see why this would be favored at +250. The same can be said for Oppenheimer starring Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Robert Downey Jr. and Matt Damon, so even at +255, it might be a better bet because of all of the hype it has right now.

The Color Purple doesn’t trail too far behind in third at +350 and has a chance of upsetting the two top favorites. Beau Is Afraid, while not listed, could eventually emerge in the odds.

Best Actor Odds

Actor Odds
Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid) +200
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) +200
Colman Domingo (The Color Purple) +250
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) +300

Joaquin Phoenix, Leonardo DiCaprio Tied to Win Best Actor

Interestingly, Beau Is Afraid is the only movie represented in this category that isn’t a strong candidate to come out on top in Best Picture. That could increase the chances of a Joaquin Phoenix win if the Academy Awards were about variety, but that clearly wasn’t the case this year with Everything Everywhere sweeping almost every category.

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That puts the incredibly accomplished DiCaprio in a better spot to win Best Actor, followed by Oppenheimer’s Cillian Murphy at +300 depending on how their performances are ultimately received.

Jonathan Majors’ excellent role in the recently-released Wartime should see him included in the conversation as well,

Best Actress Odds

Actress Odds
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) +200
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) +205
Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) +225
Margot Robbie (Barbie) +325

Emily Blunt Favored to Win Best Actress

The expected love for Oppenheimer continues with Emily Blunt being favored for Best Actress at +200. Based on what we’ve seen from the film so far, Blunt will play a pivotal role and the sheer nature of Oppenheimer is bound to bring the best out of her if her past projects have been any indication.

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Maestro will have some star power attached to it as well with Steven Spielberg, Marin Scorsese and Todd Phillips all set to serve as producers. Carey Mulligan could end up being a solid second choice at +205, but Margot Robbie should not be slept on +325 given how Barbie should be a summer blockbuster and how perfect of a fit she’ll be for the titular character.

May December’s Natalie Portman and Shirley’s Regina King are also worth keeping an eye on.

Best Director Odds

Director Odds
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) +200
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) +225
Bradley Cooper (Maestro) +225
Greta Gerwig (Barbie) +290

Martin Scorsese Favored to Win Best Director

Martin Scorsese is always an easy bet for Best Director at the Oscars and for good reason. His decorated resume speaks for itself and, as previously mentioned, Killers of the Flower Moon will be another acclaimed addition to his long list of hits.

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He’s the smart pick in this category at +200 with Christopher Nolan and Bradley Cooper coming close at +225, respectively. Both Oppenheimer and Maestro should receive enough praise to give them a fair shot at this award, with Barbie’s Greta Gerwig being a fine dark horse at +290.


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