Election 2016 Odds: Trump Still With Narrow Path to Victory

This election cycle has bombarded us with numbers — poll numbers, swing percentages, early vote counts. The list goes on. But there’s only one number that reigns supreme — 270.

That’s the number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Each state is assigned a set number of electoral votes. And if you win the state, you win the votes. It’s as easy as that. So to predict who will win the election, we need to break it down state-by-state and count up to 270.

Last week, I looked in depth at some key swing states. Now that the election is just one day away, let’s do one last run down of the numbers.

Let’s start with the stronghold states. These are the ones we probably won’t be hearing about on Tuesday night. You can assign the electoral votes now, for all intents and purposes.

Clinton has a clear head start with 182 electoral votes from her stronghold states versus 154 for Trump. This should come as no surprise to anyone. In modern US presidential elections, the Democrats have always started out with an advantage due to their hold over California (55 electoral votes), New York (29 EVs) and Illinois (20 EVs). The Republicans do have Texas (38 EVs), but the rest of their strongholds are mainly smaller, rural states.

Stronghold States

Moving on to the less decided states,  this is where Clinton really establishes a lead over Trump. With nine states leaning Democratic, Clinton is likely to grab 92 more electoral votes. Trump has four states leaning Republican (and one electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd district), which would give him a meager 32 electoral votes.

Up until here, if the states vote as the polls predict, that would leave Clinton with 274 electoral votes — just enough to win the presidency! She’ll have passed 270 without having to win a single swing state. Trump would be sitting on 186, and the 78 remaining electoral votes up for grabs wouldn’t be enough.

Likely States

There are five states (and Maine’s 2nd District) that are too close to call. Either the polls have them neck-and-neck or their results vary too wildly for us to draw a conclusion. Either way, these states are the most in play. Florida (29 EVs) is the big win in this category. Its 29 electoral votes are equal to New York and behind only California and Texas.

Toss-up States (78 EV)

So that leaves two very different paths to victory. For Clinton, she just needs to hold on. Even if she drops some states that she’s predicted to win, she can still clinch 270 with a swing state or two.

Trump’s case is a lot more interesting. He’s got a few narrow paths to victory, but they all rely heavily on a few conditions. First of all, he needs to win his stronghold and Republican-leaning states. That puts him at 186 electoral votes, leaving him with an 84-vote gap to make up.

Secondly, he needs to win Florida (29 EVs). That would put him at 215, with 55 electoral votes to make up.

With that, a combination of some of the toss-up states (especially Ohio and Arizona) and poaching one or two of the heavy-hitters in the Midwest – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin – could push him over 270.

There are a few combinations that could lead to a Trump presidency, but he’s in a precarious position. Losing Florida or even a couple of the smaller states he’s predicted to win would derail his chances completely.

What does all that add up to, odds-wise? Here are our final set of odds for the election tomorrow. I’ll see you on the other side.

2016 Election Odds:

Odds to Become Next President:

• Hillary Clinton: 1/5
• Donald Trump: 21/4
• Other: 500/1

Odds to win the popular vote:

• Hillary Clinton: 2/5
• Donald Trump: 5/2

O/U on voter turnout: 40-percent

O/U on total states won:

• Hillary Clinton: 27
• Donald Trump: 23

O/U on electoral college votes:

• Hillary Clinton: 300
• Donald Trump: 210

Photo credit: “Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.