Election 2016 Odds: Swing State Edition

We are less than a week from the presidential election and the polls do not seem like they will stabilize before election day. (Here’s why.) The majority of states are safely Democrat or Republican, but a few remain very much in play and will sway the results of the electoral college. Let’s take a closer look at these all-important “swing states.”

As it stands, there are only two states that can truly be considered toss-ups: Florida and North Carolina. Polls in both states indicate a dead-heat between Clinton and Trump. Florida is, as usual, the key state to watch. With 29 electoral votes, only California and Texas (both very safe states) offer a bigger bump. Clinton has a negligible lead at around 50.3% in the polls. North Carolina is even closer, where Trump has a virtually nonexistent lead of 0.2%.

In order for Trump to win, he’ll have to pick up votes in states that are currently leaning Democrat. There are five key states, making up 73 electoral votes, that are leaning towards Hillary at the moment but are still considered “battleground states”. Of these states, Pennsylvania is by far the most important. Most election models predict Clinton will win the White House if she can hold onto her lead and grab the 20 electoral votes assigned to Pennsylvania.

Trump, on the other hand, is only leading in three states that are considered “battlegrounds.” Of these states, Ohio (18 electoral votes) is most important. In all likelihood, he needs to hold onto all three just to have a shot at winning the election as a whole.

So that’s where we are now. Clinton has 223 electoral votes she can rely on; Trump has 179. Clinton has 55 electoral votes within arm’s reach; Trump has 37. That leaves 44 electoral votes completely up for grabs (in Florida and NC).

These battleground states are the ones to watch. In most election years, the polls, and therefore the odds, would remain relatively fixed this close to voting day. But this isn’t a normal election.

Odds to Win Battleground States on November 8 (as of Nov 3):

Toss-up States:

Florida
Clinton: 83/84
Trump: 167/165

North Carolina
Clinton: 201/200
Trump: 199/200

Democratic Leaning States:

Nevada
Clinton: 49/51
Trump: 51/49

Colorado
Clinton: 27/73
Trump: 73/27

Pennsylvania
Clinton: 11/39
Trump: 39/11

New Hampshire
Clinton: 67/164
Trump: 71/29

Michigan
Clinton: 11/39
Trump: 39/11

Republican Leaning States:

Arizona
Clinton: 8/17
Trump: 17/8

Iowa
Clinton: 67/33
Trump: 33/67

Ohio
Clinton: 17/33
Trump: 33/17

Photo credit: “Hillary Clinton” by Brett Weinstein, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.